🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 1, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

11
Games
6
🔵 Edge (NP)
5/6
🔵 Correct (NP)
5/6 (83%)
🔵 Win Rate
6
🟢 Edge (AT)
5/6
🟢 Correct (AT)
5/6 (83%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-01		SAS @ NYKSAS 89 — NYK 114NYKSAS Q4 08:34 (def before:+14 after:+13)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q4 11:10SASNYK:83 SAS:73Castle 1' Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (9 PTS) (Wembanyama 1 AST)
Q4 10:54NYKNYK:84 SAS:73Towns Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q4 10:42SASNYK:84 SAS:75Vassell 14' Floating Jump Shot (15 PTS)
Q4 09:54NYKNYK:86 SAS:75Diawara 21' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Alvarado 4 AST)
Q4 08:57NYKNYK:89 SAS:75Anunoby 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Alvarado 5 AST)
Q4 08:34SASNYK:89 SAS:76Vassell Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q4 07:44NYKNYK:92 SAS:76Hart 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Shamet 3 AST)
Q4 07:02NYKNYK:94 SAS:76Bridges 1' Running Dunk (25 PTS)
Q4 06:40NYKNYK:95 SAS:76Brunson Free Throw 1 of 3 (20 PTS)
#2
2026-03-01		CLE @ BKNCLE 106 — BKN 102CLECLE Q4 11:38 (def before:+1 after:-1)🟢 Edge → CLE ✅🟢 Edge → CLE ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 01:25BKNBKN:72 CLE:73Nelson Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 01:25BKNBKN:73 CLE:73Nelson Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 00:35CLEBKN:73 CLE:74Harden Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 00:25BKNBKN:74 CLE:74Saraf Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 00:25BKNBKN:75 CLE:74Saraf Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q4 11:38CLEBKN:75 CLE:76Mobley 8' Turnaround Hook Shot (10 PTS) (Schroder 5 AST)
Q4 11:12BKNBKN:77 CLE:76Saraf 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Williams 5 AST)
Q4 10:16CLEBKN:77 CLE:77Mobley Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q4 10:16CLEBKN:77 CLE:78Mobley Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
#3
2026-03-01		MIL @ CHIMIL 97 — CHI 120CHIMIL Q3 05:09 (def before:-1 after:-4)🟢 Edge → MIL ❌🟢 Edge → MIL ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:14MILCHI:63 MIL:73Rollins 23' Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 07:47CHICHI:65 MIL:73Yabusele 2' Running Layup (9 PTS) (Sexton 1 AST)
Q3 06:36CHICHI:68 MIL:73Sexton 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Giddey 7 AST)
Q3 06:09CHICHI:71 MIL:73Yabusele 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Okoro 3 AST)
Q3 05:17CHICHI:72 MIL:73Giddey Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)
Q3 05:09MILCHI:72 MIL:76Portis 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Rollins 6 AST)
Q3 05:02CHICHI:74 MIL:76Sexton 2' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Q3 05:02CHICHI:75 MIL:76Sexton Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)
Q3 04:45MILCHI:75 MIL:77Thomas Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
#4
2026-03-01		MIN @ DENMIN 117 — DEN 108MINDEN Q3 02:14 (def before:+13 after:+11)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:24DENDEN:72 MIN:83Jokic 4' Putback Layup (28 PTS)
Q3 03:12MINDEN:72 MIN:84Randle Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 03:12MINDEN:72 MIN:85Randle Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 02:45DENDEN:74 MIN:85Jokic 2' Running Layup (30 PTS) (Pickett 1 AST)
Q3 02:29MINDEN:74 MIN:87Edwards 3' Driving Layup (18 PTS) (Randle 7 AST)
Q3 02:14DENDEN:76 MIN:87Pickett 3' Driving Reverse Layup (2 PTS)
Q3 01:35DENDEN:78 MIN:87Pickett 4' Driving Layup (4 PTS)
Q3 00:59DENDEN:80 MIN:87Jokic 5' Driving Layup (32 PTS)
Q3 00:30DENDEN:82 MIN:87Brown 5' Driving Layup (4 PTS)
#5
2026-03-01		MEM @ INDMEM 125 — IND 106MEM—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#6
2026-03-01		POR @ ATLPOR 101 — ATL 135ATLATL Q3 10:17 (def before:-16 after:-17)🟢 Edge → ATL ✅🟢 Edge → ATL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:47ATLATL:75 POR:54Alexander-Walker 26' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Okongwu 4 AST)
Q2 00:42PORATL:75 POR:55Henderson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q2 00:42PORATL:75 POR:56Henderson Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q2 00:26PORATL:75 POR:58Wesley Running Layup (8 PTS) (Henderson 2 AST)
Q3 10:26PORATL:75 POR:59Krejci Free Throw 1 of 3 (7 PTS)
Q3 10:17ATLATL:76 POR:59Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 10:17ATLATL:77 POR:59Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 09:44ATLATL:79 POR:59McCollum 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Alexander-Walker 3 AST)
Q3 09:22PORATL:79 POR:61Clingan Alley Oop Dunk (12 PTS) (Holiday 4 AST)
#7
2026-03-01		DET @ ORLDET 106 — ORL 92DET—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#8
2026-03-01		PHI @ BOSPHI 98 — BOS 114BOS—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#9
2026-03-01		OKC @ DALOKC 100 — DAL 87OKCOKC Q3 03:14 (def before:-13 after:-16)🟢 Edge → OKC ✅🟢 Edge → OKC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:27OKCDAL:55 OKC:69Holmgren 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Hartenstein 2 AST)
Q3 05:27OKCDAL:55 OKC:71Holmgren Dunk (15 PTS) (Wallace 7 AST)
Q3 04:40DALDAL:58 OKC:71Christie 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Nembhard 4 AST)
Q3 03:53OKCDAL:58 OKC:73Holmgren Tip Layup Shot (17 PTS)
Q3 03:34DALDAL:60 OKC:73Nembhard 8' Fadeaway Jumper (7 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)
Q3 03:14OKCDAL:60 OKC:76Joe 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST)
Q3 02:56DALDAL:62 OKC:76Powell 1' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Middleton 3 AST)
Q3 02:01DALDAL:64 OKC:76Powell 1' Hook Shot (8 PTS)
Q3 01:50OKCDAL:64 OKC:77Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)
#10
2026-03-01		NOP @ LACNOP 117 — LAC 137LACLAC Q2 01:28 (def before:-13 after:-15)🟢 Edge → LAC ✅🟢 Edge → LAC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 03:15LACLAC:71 NOP:56Leonard 4' Driving Layup (11 PTS)
Q2 03:15LACLAC:72 NOP:56Leonard Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)
Q2 02:56NOPLAC:72 NOP:58Bey 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (9 PTS) (Queen 1 AST)
Q2 02:19LACLAC:74 NOP:58Leonard 3' Running Dunk (14 PTS)
Q2 02:06NOPLAC:74 NOP:61Fears 29' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Matkovic 2 AST)
Q2 01:28LACLAC:76 NOP:61Leonard 23' Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Q2 01:06NOPLAC:76 NOP:63Murphy III 3' Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Fears 2 AST)
Q2 00:37NOPLAC:76 NOP:64Fears Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q2 00:37NOPLAC:76 NOP:65Fears Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
#11
2026-03-01		SAC @ LALSAC 104 — LAL 128LALLAL Q3 06:11 (def before:-12 after:-14)
SAC Q3 00:14 (def before:+19 after:+17)
76-gap: 356.6s apart		🟢 Edge → LAL ✅🟢 Edge → LAL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:22LALLAL:70 SAC:58L. James 3' Cutting Dunk Shot (11 PTS) (Reaves 4 AST)
Q3 07:56SACLAL:70 SAC:60Raynaud 8' Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS) (DeRozan 6 AST)
Q3 07:40LALLAL:71 SAC:60Doncic Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 06:47LALLAL:74 SAC:60Smart 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Reaves 5 AST)
Q3 06:28SACLAL:74 SAC:62DeRozan 16' Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Q3 06:11LALLAL:76 SAC:62Doncic 2' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (18 PTS)
Q3 05:38LALLAL:78 SAC:62Doncic 13' Driving Floating Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Q3 05:38LALLAL:79 SAC:62Doncic Free Throw 1 of 1 (21 PTS)
Q3 05:10LALLAL:81 SAC:62Hayes 1' Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Kennard 1 AST)
Q3 04:40LALLAL:83 SAC:62Doncic 1' Running Layup (23 PTS)
Q3 04:26SACLAL:83 SAC:64Clifford 2' Floating Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Westbrook 5 AST)
Q3 04:08LALLAL:86 SAC:64Kennard 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Doncic 9 AST)
Q3 03:58SACLAL:86 SAC:65Clifford Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 03:38LALLAL:89 SAC:65Doncic 25' 3PT Fadeaway Jumper (26 PTS)
Q3 03:24SACLAL:89 SAC:67Eubanks 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Plowden 2 AST)
Q3 02:57SACLAL:89 SAC:69Clifford 4' Driving Floating Jump Shot (19 PTS) (DeRozan 7 AST)
Q3 02:26LALLAL:91 SAC:69Doncic 11' Fadeaway Jumper (28 PTS)
Q3 02:12SACLAL:91 SAC:72Clifford 28' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (DeRozan 8 AST)
Q3 01:38SACLAL:91 SAC:73Eubanks Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 01:38SACLAL:91 SAC:74Eubanks Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 01:03LALLAL:93 SAC:74LaRavia 4' Cutting Layup Shot (2 PTS) (L. James 5 AST)
Q3 00:14SACLAL:93 SAC:76Eubanks 2' Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Monk 1 AST)
Q3 00:00LALLAL:96 SAC:76L. James 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q4 11:42LALLAL:97 SAC:76L. James Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q4 11:42LALLAL:98 SAC:76L. James Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4