๐Ÿ€ Kelly NBA 76 โ€” March 2, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge โ€” unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

๐ŸŽฏ Kelly Rule (v4 ยท Updated 2026-03-10)

๐ŸŸข Edge โ€” Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met โ†’ that team predicted to win

โšช No Edge โ€” (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

๐Ÿ”ต Scenario A โ€” Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

๐ŸŸข Scenario B โ€” Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

4
Games
3
๐Ÿ”ต Edge (NP)
2/3
๐Ÿ”ต Correct (NP)
2/3 (67%)
๐Ÿ”ต Win Rate
3
๐ŸŸข Edge (AT)
2/3
๐ŸŸข Correct (AT)
2/3 (67%)
๐ŸŸข Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 ๐Ÿ”ต Next Possession ๐ŸŸข Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-02
HOU @ WASHOU 123 โ€” WAS 118HOUHOU Q3 06:25 (def before:-7 after:-9)๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ HOU โœ…๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ HOU โœ…
โ–ถ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:22HOUWAS:57 HOU:74Thompson 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Sheppard 7 AST)
Q3 08:11WASWAS:59 HOU:74Coulibaly 2' Alley Oop Dunk (16 PTS) (Carrington 2 AST)
Q3 07:38WASWAS:61 HOU:74Johnson 11' Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS)
Q3 07:26WASWAS:64 HOU:74George 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Carrington 3 AST)
Q3 07:00WASWAS:67 HOU:74Carrington 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (6 PTS) (George 2 AST)
Q3 06:25HOUWAS:67 HOU:76Durant 16' Fadeaway Jumper (16 PTS) (Sheppard 8 AST)
Q3 06:15WASWAS:69 HOU:76Carrington 17' Turnaround Fadeaway (8 PTS)
Q3 05:55HOUWAS:69 HOU:78Thompson 3' Driving Layup (18 PTS)
Q3 05:26HOUWAS:69 HOU:81Durant 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (19 PTS)
#2
2026-03-02
BOS @ MILBOS 108 โ€” MIL 81BOSMIL Q4 03:18 (def before:+29 after:+26)โšช No Edgeโšช No Edge
โ–ถ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q4 07:02BOSMIL:69 BOS:96White 27' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Pritchard 8 AST)
Q4 04:48BOSMIL:69 BOS:99Pritchard 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Hauser 1 AST)
Q4 04:21MILMIL:71 BOS:99Sims Tip Layup Shot (3 PTS)
Q4 04:06BOSMIL:71 BOS:102Pritchard 28' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Q4 03:54MILMIL:73 BOS:102Dieng 16' Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Harris 1 AST)
Q4 03:18MILMIL:76 BOS:102Harris 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jackson Jr. 1 AST)
Q4 02:53BOSMIL:76 BOS:105Scheierman 28' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Pritchard 9 AST)
Q4 02:29MILMIL:79 BOS:105Harris 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Jackson Jr. 2 AST)
Q4 01:23BOSMIL:79 BOS:108Gonzalez 26' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)
#3
2026-03-02
DEN @ UTADEN 128 โ€” UTA 125DENDEN Q3 09:40 (def before:-5 after:-7)๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ DEN โœ…๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ DEN โœ…
โ–ถ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 11:32DENUTA:67 DEN:68Braun 5' Running Layup (9 PTS)
Q3 11:07DENUTA:67 DEN:71Strawther 27' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Braun 2 AST)
Q3 10:16DENUTA:67 DEN:74Murray 25' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Braun 3 AST)
Q3 10:01UTAUTA:68 DEN:74Bailey Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 10:01UTAUTA:69 DEN:74Bailey Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 09:40DENUTA:69 DEN:76Valanciunas 9' Turnaround Hook Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 09:24UTAUTA:70 DEN:76Filipowski Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 09:00UTAUTA:71 DEN:76Filipowski Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 09:00UTAUTA:72 DEN:76Filipowski Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
#4
2026-03-02
LAC @ GSWLAC 114 โ€” GSW 101LACGSW Q3 01:55 (def before:-3 after:-6)
LAC Q3 00:22 (def before:+4 after:+3)
76-gap: 92.2s apart
๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ GSW โŒ๐ŸŸข Edge โ†’ GSW โŒ
โ–ถ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 04:00GSWGSW:73 LAC:63Williams 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 03:44LACGSW:73 LAC:64Leonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 03:44LACGSW:73 LAC:65Leonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 03:09LACGSW:73 LAC:68Garland 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 02:55LACGSW:73 LAC:70Dunn 2' Running Dunk (11 PTS)
Q3 01:55GSWGSW:76 LAC:70Horford 27' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Melton 2 AST)
Q3 01:29LACGSW:76 LAC:71Mathurin Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 01:29LACGSW:76 LAC:72Mathurin Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 01:15GSWGSW:77 LAC:72Horford Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 01:03LACGSW:77 LAC:73Niederhauser Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 01:03LACGSW:77 LAC:74Niederhauser Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 00:52GSWGSW:79 LAC:74Podziemski 7' Floating Jump Shot (22 PTS)
Q3 00:44LACGSW:79 LAC:75Niederhauser Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
Q3 00:22LACGSW:79 LAC:76Niederhauser Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 00:22LACGSW:79 LAC:77Niederhauser Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q4 11:36LACGSW:79 LAC:80Dunn 24' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Garland 2 AST)
Q4 11:22GSWGSW:81 LAC:80Post 21' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Green 5 AST)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET ยท nba_api ยท Rule v4