🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 3, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

10
Games
8
🔵 Edge (NP)
6/8
🔵 Correct (NP)
6/8 (75%)
🔵 Win Rate
8
🟢 Edge (AT)
6/8
🟢 Correct (AT)
6/8 (75%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-03		DAL @ CHADAL 90 — CHA 117CHACHA Q3 05:04 (def before:-10 after:-13)
DAL Q4 11:23 (def before:+18 after:+16)
76-gap: 341.0s apart		🟢 Edge → CHA ✅🟢 Edge → CHA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:06CHACHA:71 DAL:59Kalkbrenner 1' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Knueppel 2 AST)
Q3 05:52DALCHA:71 DAL:60Powell Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 05:52DALCHA:71 DAL:61Powell Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 05:38CHACHA:73 DAL:61Kalkbrenner 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Bridges 4 AST)
Q3 05:24DALCHA:73 DAL:63Middleton 15' Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Q3 05:04CHACHA:76 DAL:63Knueppel 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bridges 5 AST)
Q3 04:39DALCHA:76 DAL:65Powell 4' Driving Hook Shot (11 PTS) (Nembhard 2 AST)
Q3 04:08DALCHA:76 DAL:66Powell Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 03:44CHACHA:79 DAL:66Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Knueppel 3 AST)
Q3 03:11CHACHA:81 DAL:66Kalkbrenner 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (6 PTS) (Green 1 AST)
Q3 02:34DALCHA:81 DAL:68Washington 3' Cutting Layup Shot (13 PTS) (Powell 3 AST)
Q3 02:14CHACHA:84 DAL:68James 26' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Kalkbrenner 1 AST)
Q3 02:01DALCHA:84 DAL:69Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 02:01DALCHA:84 DAL:70Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 01:43CHACHA:87 DAL:70Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Knueppel 4 AST)
Q3 01:09CHACHA:89 DAL:70Knueppel 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Green 2 AST)
Q3 00:30CHACHA:92 DAL:70James 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Kalkbrenner 2 AST)
Q3 00:10DALCHA:92 DAL:71Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 00:10DALCHA:92 DAL:72Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q4 11:42DALCHA:92 DAL:74Christie 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Nembhard 3 AST)
Q4 11:23DALCHA:92 DAL:76Christie 3' Driving Layup (9 PTS)
Q4 11:14CHACHA:93 DAL:76Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q4 11:14CHACHA:94 DAL:76Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q4 10:50DALCHA:94 DAL:79Nembhard 29' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Gafford 2 AST)
#2
2026-03-03		DET @ CLEDET 109 — CLE 113CLEDET Q3 02:13 (def before:+6 after:+5)🟢 Edge → DET ❌🟢 Edge → DET ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:30CLECLE:78 DET:72Bryant 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Schroder 4 AST)
Q3 03:30CLECLE:79 DET:72Bryant Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)
Q3 03:08DETCLE:79 DET:73Harris Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 02:57DETCLE:79 DET:75LeVert 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (2 PTS) (Holland II 1 AST)
Q3 02:33CLECLE:81 DET:75Porter Jr. 1' Driving Dunk (5 PTS) (Ellis 2 AST)
Q3 02:13DETCLE:81 DET:76Harris Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 02:13DETCLE:81 DET:77Harris Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 01:58CLECLE:83 DET:77Ellis 9' Jump Bank Shot (6 PTS) (Schroder 5 AST)
Q3 01:58CLECLE:84 DET:77Ellis Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)
#3
2026-03-03		WAS @ ORLWAS 109 — ORL 126ORL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#4
2026-03-03		BKN @ MIABKN 98 — MIA 124MIAMIA Q3 09:34 (def before:-16 after:-18)
BKN Q4 10:55 (def before:+16 after:+15)
76-gap: 639.0s apart		🟢 Edge → MIA ✅🟢 Edge → MIA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 11:41BKNMIA:69 BKN:55Mann Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 11:41BKNMIA:69 BKN:56Mann Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 11:27MIAMIA:71 BKN:56Larsson 2' Driving Layup (3 PTS) (Wiggins 2 AST)
Q3 10:22BKNMIA:71 BKN:58Traore 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (14 PTS) (Mann 1 AST)
Q3 10:02MIAMIA:74 BKN:58Mitchell 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Adebayo 3 AST)
Q3 09:34MIAMIA:76 BKN:58Adebayo 3' Running Layup (17 PTS) (Herro 2 AST)
Q3 09:33BKNMIA:76 BKN:59Clowney Free Throw Technical (10 PTS)
Q3 08:48BKNMIA:76 BKN:61Claxton 5' Driving Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Mann 2 AST)
Q3 08:29BKNMIA:76 BKN:62Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 06:55MIAMIA:78 BKN:62Herro 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Wiggins 3 AST)
Q3 04:32BKNMIA:78 BKN:65Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Wolf 3 AST)
Q3 03:48BKNMIA:78 BKN:67Sharpe 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (8 PTS) (Wolf 4 AST)
Q3 03:06MIAMIA:80 BKN:67Jaquez Jr. 1' Running Layup (15 PTS)
Q3 02:36BKNMIA:80 BKN:69Saraf 1' Running Layup (6 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)
Q3 02:22MIAMIA:83 BKN:69Herro 26' 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Mitchell 4 AST)
Q3 02:03MIAMIA:85 BKN:69Herro 14' Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (22 PTS)
Q3 01:38BKNMIA:85 BKN:71Sharpe Putback Layup (10 PTS)
Q3 01:21MIAMIA:88 BKN:71Mitchell 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wiggins 4 AST)
Q3 01:01BKNMIA:88 BKN:72Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 01:01BKNMIA:88 BKN:73Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 00:38BKNMIA:88 BKN:75Wolf 1' Running Layup (9 PTS) (Sharpe 3 AST)
Q3 00:20MIAMIA:91 BKN:75Fontecchio 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Ware 1 AST)
Q4 10:55BKNMIA:91 BKN:76Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q4 10:55BKNMIA:91 BKN:77Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q4 10:45MIAMIA:92 BKN:77Jakucionis Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q4 10:45MIAMIA:93 BKN:77Jakucionis Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
#5
2026-03-03		NYK @ TORNYK 111 — TOR 95NYKTOR Q3 02:54 (def before:+9 after:+8)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:46NYKTOR:73 NYK:79Hart Running Finger Roll Layup (8 PTS) (Brunson 9 AST)
Q3 05:20NYKTOR:73 NYK:82Shamet 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Hart 6 AST)
Q3 04:55TORTOR:74 NYK:82Barrett Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 03:46NYKTOR:74 NYK:84Diawara 11' Driving Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Q3 02:54TORTOR:75 NYK:84Mamukelashvili Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 02:54TORTOR:76 NYK:84Mamukelashvili Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 02:12TORTOR:78 NYK:84Ingram 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (31 PTS)
Q3 01:43TORTOR:80 NYK:84Barnes 1' Running Finger Roll Layup (12 PTS) (Mamukelashvili 1 AST)
Q3 00:58TORTOR:82 NYK:84Barnes 1' Alley Oop Dunk (14 PTS) (Shead 3 AST)
#6
2026-03-03		SAS @ PHISAS 131 — PHI 91SASSAS Q2 00:33 (def before:-22 after:-25)🟢 Edge → SAS ✅🟢 Edge → SAS ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 01:32PHIPHI:47 SAS:68Edgecombe Putback Layup (4 PTS)
Q2 01:16SASPHI:47 SAS:71Champagnie 28' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Castle 5 AST)
Q2 01:00PHIPHI:49 SAS:71Watford 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Bona 2 AST)
Q2 00:49SASPHI:49 SAS:73Castle Tip Dunk Shot (13 PTS)
Q2 00:39PHIPHI:51 SAS:73Watford 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS)
Q2 00:33SASPHI:51 SAS:76Vassell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Castle 6 AST)
Q2 00:04SASPHI:51 SAS:78Champagnie 1' Alley Oop Dunk (10 PTS) (Castle 7 AST)
Q2 00:00PHIPHI:52 SAS:78Edgecombe Free Throw 2 of 3 (5 PTS)
Q2 00:00PHIPHI:53 SAS:78Edgecombe Free Throw 3 of 3 (6 PTS)
#7
2026-03-03		OKC @ CHIOKC 116 — CHI 108OKCCHI Q3 00:01 (def before:+13 after:+11)
OKC Q3 06:03 (def before:-7 after:-10)
76-gap: 361.9s apart		🟢 Edge → OKC ✅🟢 Edge → OKC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:17OKCCHI:63 OKC:69Wiggins Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 07:55OKCCHI:63 OKC:70Holmgren Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 07:55OKCCHI:63 OKC:71Holmgren Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 06:44OKCCHI:63 OKC:73Joe 13' Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Holmgren 2 AST)
Q3 06:30CHICHI:66 OKC:73Giddey 28' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Okoro 2 AST)
Q3 06:03OKCCHI:66 OKC:76McCain 27' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 05:44CHICHI:68 OKC:76Richards 4' Layup (4 PTS) (Dillingham 4 AST)
Q3 04:08CHICHI:70 OKC:76Sexton 5' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Q3 04:08CHICHI:71 OKC:76Sexton Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)
Q3 03:50OKCCHI:71 OKC:79McCain 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS)
Q3 03:17CHICHI:74 OKC:79Giddey 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Buzelis 3 AST)
Q3 02:56OKCCHI:74 OKC:81Wiggins 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 02:15OKCCHI:74 OKC:84McCain 28' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (K. Williams 2 AST)
Q3 01:21OKCCHI:74 OKC:86Wiggins 1' Cutting Layup Shot (12 PTS) (Caruso 1 AST)
Q3 00:19OKCCHI:74 OKC:87K. Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 00:01CHICHI:76 OKC:87Jones 12' Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q4 11:23CHICHI:77 OKC:87Sexton Free Throw Technical (15 PTS)
Q4 10:54OKCCHI:77 OKC:89Caruso 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS)
Q4 10:41OKCCHI:77 OKC:91Caruso Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (8 PTS) (McCain 1 AST)
#8
2026-03-03		MEM @ MINMEM 110 — MIN 117MINMIN Q3 06:16 (def before:-3 after:-4)🟢 Edge → MIN ✅🟢 Edge → MIN ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:45MEMMIN:68 MEM:72Wells 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Jerome 2 AST)
Q3 07:27MINMIN:70 MEM:72Randle 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 06:56MINMIN:72 MEM:72McDaniels Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Gobert 1 AST)
Q3 06:40MINMIN:74 MEM:72Edwards 1' Running Layup (25 PTS) (DiVincenzo 5 AST)
Q3 06:16MINMIN:75 MEM:72Randle Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 06:16MINMIN:76 MEM:72Randle Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 05:54MINMIN:78 MEM:72McDaniels 1' Running Alley Oop Dunk Shot (16 PTS) (DiVincenzo 6 AST)
Q3 05:47MEMMIN:78 MEM:75Spencer 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Clayton Jr. 8 AST)
Q3 05:17MINMIN:80 MEM:75Randle Putback Layup (14 PTS)
#9
2026-03-03		NOP @ LALNOP 101 — LAL 110LALLAL Q3 00:01 (def before:+3 after:+2)
NOP Q3 00:48 (def before:+0 after:-1)
76-gap: 47.0s apart		🟢 Edge → NOP ❌🟢 Edge → NOP ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 02:30NOPLAL:70 NOP:73Murphy III Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 01:57NOPLAL:70 NOP:75McGowens 5' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jordan 2 AST)
Q3 01:43LALLAL:71 NOP:75Hachimura Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 01:43LALLAL:72 NOP:75Hachimura Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 01:04LALLAL:75 NOP:75Kennard 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (LaRavia 2 AST)
Q3 00:48NOPLAL:75 NOP:76Murphy III Free Throw Technical (21 PTS)
Q3 00:08NOPLAL:75 NOP:78Jordan 2' Putback Layup (6 PTS)
Q3 00:01LALLAL:76 NOP:78Kennard Free Throw Technical (9 PTS)
Q4 11:30LALLAL:78 NOP:78LaRavia 1' Cutting Layup Shot (5 PTS) (L. James 5 AST)
Q4 11:00LALLAL:79 NOP:78L. James Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)
Q4 10:39NOPLAL:79 NOP:81Bey 27' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Murray 6 AST)
#10
2026-03-03		PHX @ SACPHX 114 — SAC 103PHXSAC Q4 10:36 (def before:+17 after:+16)
PHX Q3 06:05 (def before:-10 after:-13)
76-gap: 449.0s apart		🟢 Edge → PHX ✅🟢 Edge → PHX ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:56PHXSAC:63 PHX:65Gillespie 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (12 PTS) (O'Neale 4 AST)
Q3 08:05PHXSAC:63 PHX:68Gillespie 25' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (15 PTS) (O'Neale 5 AST)
Q3 06:46PHXSAC:63 PHX:69Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 06:46PHXSAC:63 PHX:70Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 06:23PHXSAC:63 PHX:73O'Neale 26' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Allen 2 AST)
Q3 06:05PHXSAC:63 PHX:76O'Neale 25' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Booker 4 AST)
Q3 05:51SACSAC:65 PHX:76Raynaud 9' Hook Shot (13 PTS) (Westbrook 6 AST)
Q3 05:36SACSAC:67 PHX:76Raynaud 6' Running Layup (15 PTS) (Monk 2 AST)
Q3 05:19PHXSAC:67 PHX:78Green 4' Driving Layup (14 PTS)
Q3 05:19PHXSAC:67 PHX:79Green Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)
Q3 05:04SACSAC:69 PHX:79Clifford 18' Pullup Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Monk 3 AST)
Q3 04:16SACSAC:70 PHX:79Plowden Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 04:16SACSAC:71 PHX:79Plowden Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 03:49SACSAC:73 PHX:79Achiuwa 4' Layup (18 PTS) (Monk 4 AST)
Q3 03:25PHXSAC:73 PHX:82Fleming 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Allen 3 AST)
Q3 02:48PHXSAC:73 PHX:85Fleming 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Allen 4 AST)
Q3 02:10PHXSAC:73 PHX:87Fleming 1' Alley Oop Dunk (8 PTS) (Allen 5 AST)
Q3 00:53PHXSAC:73 PHX:90Allen 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Gillespie 5 AST)
Q3 00:35SACSAC:75 PHX:90Carter 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Monk 5 AST)
Q4 11:40PHXSAC:75 PHX:92Gillespie 15' Fadeaway Jumper (17 PTS)
Q4 10:36SACSAC:76 PHX:92DeRozan Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q4 10:36SACSAC:77 PHX:92DeRozan Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q4 10:18PHXSAC:77 PHX:95Allen 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Gillespie 6 AST)
Q4 10:04SACSAC:78 PHX:95Raynaud Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4