🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 4, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

6
Games
5
🔵 Edge (NP)
4/5
🔵 Correct (NP)
4/5 (80%)
🔵 Win Rate
4
🟢 Edge (AT)
4/4
🟢 Correct (AT)
4/4 (100%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-04		OKC @ NYKOKC 103 — NYK 100OKCOKC Q3 01:38 (def before:+0 after:-1)🟢 Edge → OKC ✅🟢 Edge → OKC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 04:05NYKNYK:67 OKC:72Brunson Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
Q3 03:35NYKNYK:69 OKC:72Shamet 1' Driving Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 03:07NYKNYK:72 OKC:72Brunson 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 02:19OKCNYK:72 OKC:75J. Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (McCain 1 AST)
Q3 01:50NYKNYK:75 OKC:75Brunson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Shamet 1 AST)
Q3 01:38OKCNYK:75 OKC:76J. Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)
Q3 01:38OKCNYK:75 OKC:77J. Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 01:11NYKNYK:77 OKC:77Anunoby 1' Running Dunk (11 PTS)
Q3 00:01NYKNYK:80 OKC:77Bridges 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Brunson 10 AST)
#2
2026-03-04		CHA @ BOSCHA 118 — BOS 89CHABOS Q4 08:19 (def before:+21 after:+20)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q4 10:03CHABOS:71 CHA:95Miller Running Dunk (18 PTS)
Q4 09:32BOSBOS:73 CHA:95Gonzalez 13' Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Q4 09:07CHABOS:73 CHA:96Diabate Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q4 08:49BOSBOS:74 CHA:96White Free Throw 1 of 2 (28 PTS)
Q4 08:49BOSBOS:75 CHA:96White Free Throw 2 of 2 (29 PTS)
Q4 08:19BOSBOS:76 CHA:96Garza Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q4 08:19BOSBOS:77 CHA:96Garza Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q4 07:59CHABOS:77 CHA:97Green Free Throw 1 of 3 (4 PTS)
Q4 07:59CHABOS:77 CHA:98Green Free Throw 2 of 3 (5 PTS)
#3
2026-03-04		UTA @ PHIUTA 102 — PHI 106PHIPHI Q3 02:43 (def before:+1 after:+0)
UTA Q3 04:26 (def before:-5 after:-8)
76-gap: 103.0s apart		🟢 Edge → UTA ❌⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:22UTAPHI:66 UTA:69George Free Throw Technical (19 PTS)
Q3 05:22UTAPHI:66 UTA:70Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 05:22UTAPHI:66 UTA:71Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 05:10PHIPHI:68 UTA:71Walker 1' Putback Layup (17 PTS)
Q3 04:59UTAPHI:68 UTA:73George 21' Pullup Jump Shot (21 PTS)
Q3 04:26UTAPHI:68 UTA:76George 28' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Konchar 3 AST)
Q3 04:11PHIPHI:70 UTA:76Bona Dunk (8 PTS)
Q3 03:53PHIPHI:71 UTA:76Walker Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 03:29PHIPHI:72 UTA:76Maxey Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 03:29PHIPHI:73 UTA:76Maxey Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 02:43PHIPHI:75 UTA:76Maxey 6' Driving Finger Roll Layup (20 PTS) (Edwards 2 AST)
Q3 02:43PHIPHI:76 UTA:76Maxey Free Throw 1 of 1 (21 PTS)
Q3 02:20PHIPHI:78 UTA:76Edwards 1' Running Alley Oop Dunk Shot (5 PTS) (Maxey 5 AST)
Q3 02:06UTAPHI:78 UTA:79Hinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Sensabaugh 2 AST)
Q3 01:30UTAPHI:78 UTA:81Bamba 2' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Collier 2 AST)
#4
2026-03-04		POR @ MEMPOR 122 — MEM 114PORPOR Q3 07:00 (def before:+1 after:-1)🟢 Edge → POR ✅🟢 Edge → POR ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:25PORMEM:68 POR:72Henderson Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 08:07MEMMEM:71 POR:72Wells 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Small 4 AST)
Q3 07:47PORMEM:71 POR:74Grant 3' Driving Reverse Layup (19 PTS) (Holiday 7 AST)
Q3 07:30MEMMEM:72 POR:74Small Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 07:13MEMMEM:75 POR:74Wells 29' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Spencer 4 AST)
Q3 07:00PORMEM:75 POR:76Camara 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Holiday 8 AST)
Q3 06:25PORMEM:75 POR:78Camara 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (6 PTS)
Q3 06:07PORMEM:75 POR:80Cissoko 2' Running Reverse Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Holiday 9 AST)
Q3 04:31PORMEM:75 POR:82Grant 3' Driving Hook Shot (21 PTS) (Krejci 1 AST)
#5
2026-03-04		ATL @ MILATL 131 — MIL 113ATLMIL Q3 06:04 (def before:+6 after:+5)
ATL Q3 08:34 (def before:-2 after:-5)
76-gap: 150.0s apart		🟢 Edge → ATL ✅🟢 Edge → ATL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:27MILMIL:71 ATL:66Turner 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Rollins 9 AST)
Q3 11:20ATLMIL:71 ATL:69Okongwu 27' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (McCollum 4 AST)
Q3 10:39ATLMIL:71 ATL:71Okongwu 8' Hook Shot (16 PTS)
Q3 09:22ATLMIL:71 ATL:72McCollum Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 09:22ATLMIL:71 ATL:73McCollum Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 08:34ATLMIL:71 ATL:76Alexander-Walker 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (McCollum 5 AST)
Q3 08:18MILMIL:73 ATL:76Dieng 2' Dunk (12 PTS) (G. Antetokounmpo 4 AST)
Q3 08:07ATLMIL:73 ATL:77McCollum Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 08:07ATLMIL:73 ATL:78McCollum Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 07:36ATLMIL:73 ATL:81Alexander-Walker 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (McCollum 6 AST)
Q3 06:04MILMIL:75 ATL:81G. Antetokounmpo 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS)
Q3 06:04MILMIL:76 ATL:81G. Antetokounmpo Free Throw 1 of 1 (19 PTS)
Q3 05:41ATLMIL:76 ATL:83Daniels 13' Turnaround Fadeaway (6 PTS) (Kispert 4 AST)
Q3 04:55ATLMIL:76 ATL:86Okongwu 26' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Kispert 5 AST)
Q3 03:51ATLMIL:76 ATL:89Landale 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)
#6
2026-03-04		IND @ LACIND 107 — LAC 130LACLAC Q3 06:41 (def before:-13 after:-14)
IND Q3 00:02 (def before:+28 after:+26)
76-gap: 398.1s apart		🟢 Edge → LAC ✅🟢 Edge → LAC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:53LACLAC:72 IND:60Leonard 12' Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Lopez 2 AST)
Q3 07:32LACLAC:73 IND:60Leonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)
Q3 07:32LACLAC:74 IND:60Leonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)
Q3 07:16INDLAC:74 IND:62Huff 10' Turnaround Hook Shot (18 PTS) (Nesmith 2 AST)
Q3 06:41LACLAC:75 IND:62Leonard Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q3 06:41LACLAC:76 IND:62Leonard Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (26 PTS)
Q3 06:02LACLAC:79 IND:62Leonard 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (29 PTS)
Q3 05:45LACLAC:80 IND:62Jones Jr. Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 05:12LACLAC:83 IND:62Lopez 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Sanders 2 AST)
Q3 05:00INDLAC:83 IND:63Nembhard Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 05:00INDLAC:83 IND:64Nembhard Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 04:36LACLAC:84 IND:64Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 04:09LACLAC:86 IND:64Jackson 1' Putback Layup (3 PTS)
Q3 03:34LACLAC:89 IND:64Jones Jr. 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)
Q3 02:25LACLAC:91 IND:64Jackson 4' Layup (5 PTS) (Mathurin 3 AST)
Q3 02:06LACLAC:93 IND:64Mathurin 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 02:06LACLAC:94 IND:64Mathurin Free Throw 1 of 1 (13 PTS)
Q3 01:53INDLAC:94 IND:65Siakam Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)
Q3 01:53INDLAC:94 IND:66Siakam Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)
Q3 01:42INDLAC:94 IND:67Siakam Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q3 01:42INDLAC:94 IND:68Siakam Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)
Q3 01:36LACLAC:95 IND:68Mathurin Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 01:36LACLAC:96 IND:68Mathurin Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 01:21LACLAC:97 IND:68Mathurin Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 01:03INDLAC:97 IND:71Jackson 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (6 PTS) (McConnell 3 AST)
Q3 00:41LACLAC:100 IND:71Sanders 28' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Garland 6 AST)
Q3 00:32INDLAC:100 IND:72Siakam Free Throw 1 of 2 (27 PTS)
Q3 00:20INDLAC:100 IND:74McConnell 14' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)
Q3 00:05LACLAC:102 IND:74Mathurin 4' Cutting Dunk Shot (18 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)
Q3 00:02INDLAC:102 IND:76Jackson 3' Driving Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS) (McConnell 4 AST)
Q3 00:02INDLAC:102 IND:77Jackson Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)
Q4 11:43LACLAC:104 IND:77Mathurin 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (20 PTS) (Jackson 1 AST)
Q4 11:28INDLAC:104 IND:79Siakam 3' Driving Layup (29 PTS) (McConnell 5 AST)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4