🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 5, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

9
Games
5
🔵 Edge (NP)
5/5
🔵 Correct (NP)
5/5 (100%)
🔵 Win Rate
5
🟢 Edge (AT)
5/5
🟢 Correct (AT)
5/5 (100%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-05		DAL @ ORLDAL 114 — ORL 115ORL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#2
2026-03-05		UTA @ WASUTA 122 — WAS 112UTA—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#3
2026-03-05		BKN @ MIABKN 110 — MIA 126MIA—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#4
2026-03-05		GSW @ HOUGSW 115 — HOU 113GSW—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-05		TOR @ MINTOR 107 — MIN 115MINMIN Q3 04:34 (def before:-5 after:-6)
TOR Q3 00:02 (def before:+15 after:+14)
76-gap: 271.3s apart		🟢 Edge → MIN ✅🟢 Edge → MIN ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:25TORMIN:70 TOR:67Ingram 3' Running Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 06:09MINMIN:73 TOR:67DiVincenzo 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (McDaniels 3 AST)
Q3 05:47TORMIN:73 TOR:68Barrett Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 05:34MINMIN:75 TOR:68Edwards 1' Driving Dunk (18 PTS)
Q3 05:11TORMIN:75 TOR:70Mamukelashvili 2' Tip Layup Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 04:34MINMIN:76 TOR:70DiVincenzo Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 04:34MINMIN:77 TOR:70DiVincenzo Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 04:02MINMIN:80 TOR:70Reid 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Gobert 2 AST)
Q3 03:17MINMIN:83 TOR:70Dosunmu 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Edwards 2 AST)
Q3 03:05MINMIN:85 TOR:70Reid 2' Running Dunk (11 PTS) (Edwards 3 AST)
Q3 02:26MINMIN:86 TOR:70Edwards Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)
Q3 01:03TORMIN:86 TOR:72Barnes 2' Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Mogbo 2 AST)
Q3 00:44MINMIN:88 TOR:72Dosunmu 1' Cutting Layup Shot (11 PTS) (Anderson 4 AST)
Q3 00:35TORMIN:88 TOR:74Quickley 2' Driving Layup (11 PTS)
Q3 00:18MINMIN:89 TOR:74Randle Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 00:18MINMIN:90 TOR:74Randle Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 00:02TORMIN:90 TOR:75Quickley Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 00:02TORMIN:90 TOR:76Quickley Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q4 11:43TORMIN:90 TOR:78Barrett 9' Turnaround Fadeaway (17 PTS)
Q4 11:23MINMIN:92 TOR:78Anderson 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS)
Q4 11:13TORMIN:92 TOR:80Quickley 2' Driving Layup (15 PTS)
#6
2026-03-05		DET @ SASDET 106 — SAS 121SASSAS Q3 10:58 (def before:-15 after:-18)🟢 Edge → SAS ✅🟢 Edge → SAS ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:28SASSAS:70 DET:52Wembanyama Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)
Q2 00:28SASSAS:71 DET:52Wembanyama Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)
Q2 00:12DETSAS:71 DET:55Harris 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Cunningham 5 AST)
Q3 11:32SASSAS:73 DET:55Wembanyama Tip Dunk Shot (26 PTS)
Q3 11:08DETSAS:73 DET:58Robinson 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Duren 2 AST)
Q3 10:58SASSAS:76 DET:58Champagnie 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Castle 8 AST)
Q3 09:55SASSAS:78 DET:58Wembanyama 1' Layup (28 PTS)
Q3 09:28SASSAS:80 DET:58Johnson 1' Cutting Layup Shot (6 PTS) (Castle 9 AST)
Q3 08:56DETSAS:80 DET:60Holland II 1' Layup (8 PTS)
#7
2026-03-05		CHI @ PHXCHI 105 — PHX 103CHIPHX Q3 00:19 (def before:+6 after:+5)
CHI Q3 04:16 (def before:-5 after:-7)
76-gap: 237.0s apart		🟢 Edge → CHI ✅🟢 Edge → CHI ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:53PHXPHX:65 CHI:72Allen Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 05:12PHXPHX:66 CHI:72Booker Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)
Q3 05:12PHXPHX:67 CHI:72Booker Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 04:35CHIPHX:67 CHI:74Sexton 2' Driving Layup (22 PTS) (Dillingham 1 AST)
Q3 04:24PHXPHX:69 CHI:74Ighodaro 7' Driving Bank Hook Shot (10 PTS) (Allen 5 AST)
Q3 04:16CHIPHX:69 CHI:76Sexton 5' Driving Finger Roll Layup (24 PTS)
Q3 03:25PHXPHX:71 CHI:76Booker 7' Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS)
Q3 02:58PHXPHX:73 CHI:76Fleming 9' Driving Hook Shot (5 PTS) (Allen 6 AST)
Q3 02:13CHIPHX:73 CHI:77Richards Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 01:36CHIPHX:73 CHI:79Miller 2' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Jones 4 AST)
Q3 00:57PHXPHX:75 CHI:79Allen 2' Running Reverse Layup (18 PTS) (Gillespie 5 AST)
Q3 00:31CHIPHX:75 CHI:81Jones 7' Running Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 00:19PHXPHX:76 CHI:81Gillespie Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 00:19PHXPHX:77 CHI:81Gillespie Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 00:03CHIPHX:77 CHI:83Jones 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS)
Q4 11:15CHIPHX:77 CHI:85Yabusele 11' Driving Hook Shot (11 PTS) (Kawamura 3 AST)
#8
2026-03-05		LAL @ DENLAL 113 — DEN 120DENDEN Q3 08:22 (def before:-12 after:-13)
LAL Q3 04:42 (def before:+9 after:+6)
76-gap: 220.0s apart		🟢 Edge → DEN ✅🟢 Edge → DEN ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:47DENDEN:73 LAL:59Jokic 2' Putback Layup (14 PTS)
Q3 09:34LALDEN:73 LAL:60Reaves Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 09:34LALDEN:73 LAL:61Reaves Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 09:09DENDEN:75 LAL:61Braun 3' Reverse Layup (10 PTS) (Jokic 9 AST)
Q3 08:55LALDEN:75 LAL:63Reaves 13' Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 08:22DENDEN:76 LAL:63Jokic Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 08:22DENDEN:77 LAL:63Jokic Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 07:54LALDEN:77 LAL:65Doncic Putback Layup (17 PTS)
Q3 07:43DENDEN:78 LAL:65Murray Free Throw Technical (24 PTS)
Q3 07:37DENDEN:80 LAL:65Braun 2' Cutting Layup Shot (12 PTS) (Jokic 10 AST)
Q3 07:22LALDEN:80 LAL:68Smart 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Reaves 3 AST)
Q3 06:27LALDEN:80 LAL:71Hachimura 28' 3PT Running Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Reaves 4 AST)
Q3 06:16DENDEN:82 LAL:71Murray 17' Step Back Jump Shot (26 PTS)
Q3 05:40LALDEN:82 LAL:73Doncic 4' Running Layup (19 PTS) (L. James 4 AST)
Q3 04:42LALDEN:82 LAL:76Smart 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Hachimura 2 AST)
Q3 04:07LALDEN:82 LAL:78Reaves 2' Driving Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 03:40DENDEN:84 LAL:78Jokic Tip Layup Shot (18 PTS)
Q3 03:12DENDEN:86 LAL:78Braun 3' Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Jokic 11 AST)
#9
2026-03-05		NOP @ SACNOP 133 — SAC 123NOPSAC Q3 08:01 (def before:+4 after:+2)
NOP Q3 09:19 (def before:-1 after:-4)
76-gap: 78.0s apart		🟢 Edge → NOP ✅🟢 Edge → NOP ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:31SACSAC:67 NOP:71Achiuwa 10' Step Back Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 10:11SACSAC:69 NOP:71Westbrook 5' Running Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 10:11SACSAC:70 NOP:71Westbrook Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)
Q3 09:49NOPSAC:70 NOP:73Missi 4' Driving Reverse Dunk Shot (7 PTS) (Murphy III 3 AST)
Q3 09:29SACSAC:72 NOP:73DeRozan 5' Driving Layup (15 PTS) (Raynaud 1 AST)
Q3 09:19NOPSAC:72 NOP:76Jones 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS)
Q3 08:37NOPSAC:72 NOP:78Bey 7' Driving Hook Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 08:26SACSAC:74 NOP:78Achiuwa 4' Driving Finger Roll Layup (12 PTS) (Westbrook 5 AST)
Q3 08:01SACSAC:76 NOP:78Achiuwa 4' Running Layup (14 PTS)
Q3 07:14SACSAC:78 NOP:78Clifford 3' Running Layup (7 PTS)
Q3 06:35SACSAC:80 NOP:78Achiuwa 6' Cutting Dunk Shot (16 PTS) (Westbrook 6 AST)
Q3 06:17NOPSAC:80 NOP:80Fears 5' Driving Layup (6 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4