🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 6, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

7
Games
4
🔵 Edge (NP)
1/4
🔵 Correct (NP)
1/4 (25%)
🔵 Win Rate
3
🟢 Edge (AT)
1/3
🟢 Correct (AT)
1/3 (33%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-06		DAL @ BOSDAL 100 — BOS 120BOSBOS Q3 05:01 (def before:-2 after:-4)🟢 Edge → BOS ✅🟢 Edge → BOS ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:24BOSBOS:72 DAL:64Brown 1' Running Dunk (14 PTS) (White 1 AST)
Q3 07:01DALBOS:72 DAL:66Thompson 20' Step Back Jump Shot (7 PTS)
Q3 06:27BOSBOS:74 DAL:66White 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS)
Q3 06:15DALBOS:74 DAL:69Christie 28' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Thompson 1 AST)
Q3 05:47DALBOS:74 DAL:72Thompson 28' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Christie 2 AST)
Q3 05:01BOSBOS:76 DAL:72Scheierman 5' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Pritchard 3 AST)
Q3 04:27DALBOS:76 DAL:75Thompson 28' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)
Q3 04:16BOSBOS:78 DAL:75Brown 3' Driving Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 04:16BOSBOS:79 DAL:75Brown Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)
#2
2026-03-06		MIA @ CHAMIA 128 — CHA 120MIACHA Q3 06:57 (def before:-3 after:-5)
MIA Q3 06:12 (def before:+3 after:+0)
76-gap: 45.0s apart		🟢 Edge → CHA ❌⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:11CHACHA:71 MIA:69Bridges 1' Running Dunk (8 PTS) (Ball 3 AST)
Q3 07:56MIACHA:71 MIA:71Gardner Tip Layup Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 07:32CHACHA:72 MIA:71Knueppel Free Throw 1 of 3 (11 PTS)
Q3 07:32CHACHA:73 MIA:71Knueppel Free Throw 2 of 3 (12 PTS)
Q3 07:32CHACHA:74 MIA:71Knueppel Free Throw 3 of 3 (13 PTS)
Q3 06:57CHACHA:76 MIA:71Ball 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)
Q3 06:35MIACHA:76 MIA:73Adebayo 11' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Mitchell 5 AST)
Q3 06:12MIACHA:76 MIA:76Mitchell 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Adebayo 2 AST)
Q3 05:54CHACHA:78 MIA:76Diabate 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (2 PTS) (Knueppel 3 AST)
Q3 05:19CHACHA:80 MIA:76Diabate Putback Dunk (4 PTS)
Q3 05:11MIACHA:80 MIA:78Larsson 1' Layup (11 PTS) (Gardner 2 AST)
#3
2026-03-06		POR @ HOUPOR 99 — HOU 106HOUPOR Q3 04:54 (def before:+2 after:-1)🟢 Edge → POR ❌🟢 Edge → POR ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:31HOUHOU:70 POR:69Thompson Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 07:11HOUHOU:72 POR:69Sheppard 3' Running Layup (8 PTS) (Thompson 3 AST)
Q3 06:55PORHOU:72 POR:71Williams III 4' Tip Dunk Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 06:34HOUHOU:75 POR:71Finney-Smith 28' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Thompson 4 AST)
Q3 06:23PORHOU:75 POR:73Holiday 2' Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Henderson 2 AST)
Q3 04:54PORHOU:75 POR:76Holiday 28' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q3 02:12PORHOU:75 POR:78Wesley 5' Running Layup (7 PTS)
Q3 01:38PORHOU:75 POR:80Williams III 3' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Holiday 9 AST)
Q3 01:13HOUHOU:77 POR:80Eason Tip Layup Shot (5 PTS)
#4
2026-03-06		NYK @ DENNYK 142 — DEN 103NYK—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-06		NOP @ PHXNOP 116 — PHX 118PHXNOP Q3 01:56 (def before:+11 after:+10)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:41PHXPHX:80 NOP:73Booker 16' Pullup Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Q3 03:15PHXPHX:83 NOP:73Booker 30' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (19 PTS)
Q3 02:59PHXPHX:86 NOP:73Booker 24' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (22 PTS)
Q3 01:56NOPPHX:86 NOP:74Murphy III Free Throw 1 of 3 (12 PTS)
Q3 01:56NOPPHX:86 NOP:75Murphy III Free Throw 2 of 3 (13 PTS)
Q3 01:56NOPPHX:86 NOP:76Murphy III Free Throw 3 of 3 (14 PTS)
Q3 01:44PHXPHX:89 NOP:76Fleming 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Dunn 1 AST)
Q3 00:44NOPPHX:89 NOP:78Missi 1' Putback Dunk (4 PTS)
Q3 00:20PHXPHX:92 NOP:78Booker 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (25 PTS)
#6
2026-03-06		LAC @ SASLAC 112 — SAS 116SASLAC Q3 06:17 (def before:-14 after:-15)🟢 Edge → LAC ❌🟢 Edge → LAC ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:13SASSAS:52 LAC:75Fox 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 08:31SASSAS:54 LAC:75Champagnie 2' Running Dunk (5 PTS) (Vassell 2 AST)
Q3 07:59SASSAS:56 LAC:75Fox 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 07:29SASSAS:59 LAC:75Fox 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Castle 6 AST)
Q3 06:47SASSAS:61 LAC:75Wembanyama 19' Pullup Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Q3 06:17LACSAS:61 LAC:76Leonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 06:17LACSAS:61 LAC:77Leonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 05:43LACSAS:61 LAC:78Leonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 05:43LACSAS:61 LAC:79Leonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
#7
2026-03-06		IND @ LALIND 117 — LAL 128LAL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4