🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 7, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

6
Games
4
🔵 Edge (NP)
2/4
🔵 Correct (NP)
2/4 (50%)
🔵 Win Rate
4
🟢 Edge (AT)
2/4
🟢 Correct (AT)
2/4 (50%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-07		ORL @ MINORL 119 — MIN 92ORLMIN Q3 01:03 (def before:+13 after:+12)
ORL Q3 06:05 (def before:-13 after:-15)
76-gap: 302.0s apart		🟢 Edge → ORL ✅🟢 Edge → ORL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:30ORLMIN:57 ORL:72Carter Jr. 6' Turnaround Hook Shot (8 PTS)
Q3 07:01MINMIN:59 ORL:72Edwards 2' Putback Layup (22 PTS)
Q3 06:43ORLMIN:59 ORL:73Bane Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 06:43ORLMIN:59 ORL:74Bane Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 06:29MINMIN:61 ORL:74Gobert 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (10 PTS) (Edwards 1 AST)
Q3 06:05ORLMIN:61 ORL:76Carter Jr. 9' Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS) (da Silva 4 AST)
Q3 05:51ORLMIN:61 ORL:77Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 05:51ORLMIN:61 ORL:78Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 05:10ORLMIN:61 ORL:81Howard 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Carter 3 AST)
Q3 04:53MINMIN:62 ORL:81Edwards Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS)
Q3 04:53MINMIN:63 ORL:81Edwards Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)
Q3 04:35MINMIN:65 ORL:81Reid 2' Running Layup (11 PTS) (Dosunmu 2 AST)
Q3 04:17ORLMIN:65 ORL:83da Silva 3' Cutting Layup Shot (9 PTS) (Banchero 3 AST)
Q3 03:45ORLMIN:65 ORL:85da Silva 2' Layup (11 PTS) (Wagner 2 AST)
Q3 03:05MINMIN:66 ORL:85Edwards Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q3 03:05MINMIN:67 ORL:85Edwards Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)
Q3 02:35MINMIN:68 ORL:85Edwards Free Throw 1 of 2 (27 PTS)
Q3 02:35MINMIN:69 ORL:85Edwards Free Throw 2 of 2 (28 PTS)
Q3 01:57MINMIN:72 ORL:85Edwards 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (31 PTS)
Q3 01:36MINMIN:74 ORL:85Randle 1' Running Dunk (12 PTS)
Q3 01:15ORLMIN:74 ORL:88Carter 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Bane 4 AST)
Q3 01:03MINMIN:75 ORL:88Hyland Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 01:03MINMIN:76 ORL:88Hyland Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 00:07ORLMIN:76 ORL:89Bane Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)
Q3 00:07ORLMIN:76 ORL:90Bane Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 00:00MINMIN:78 ORL:90Randle 2' Putback Layup (14 PTS)
#2
2026-03-07		BKN @ DETBKN 107 — DET 105BKNDET Q3 08:18 (def before:-21 after:-22)🟢 Edge → DET ❌🟢 Edge → DET ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:46DETDET:73 BKN:50Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Sasser 3 AST)
Q3 09:19BKNDET:73 BKN:51Clowney Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 09:19BKNDET:73 BKN:52Clowney Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 09:04DETDET:75 BKN:52Duren 2' Cutting Layup Shot (11 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)
Q3 08:40BKNDET:75 BKN:54Porter Jr. 3' Running Layup (17 PTS)
Q3 08:18DETDET:76 BKN:54Robinson Free Throw 1 of 3 (10 PTS)
Q3 08:18DETDET:77 BKN:54Robinson Free Throw 3 of 3 (11 PTS)
Q3 07:54BKNDET:77 BKN:55Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 07:54BKNDET:77 BKN:56Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
#3
2026-03-07		PHI @ ATLPHI 116 — ATL 125ATLATL Q3 10:05 (def before:+1 after:-1)🟢 Edge → ATL ✅🟢 Edge → ATL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 11:45ATLATL:69 PHI:73Okongwu 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (McCollum 5 AST)
Q3 11:14ATLATL:71 PHI:73Johnson 8' Turnaround Bank Shot (21 PTS)
Q3 11:14ATLATL:72 PHI:73Johnson Free Throw 1 of 1 (22 PTS)
Q3 11:02PHIATL:72 PHI:75Bona 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (4 PTS) (Maxey 3 AST)
Q3 10:52ATLATL:74 PHI:75Daniels 1' Cutting Layup Shot (7 PTS) (Okongwu 2 AST)
Q3 10:05ATLATL:76 PHI:75McCollum 1' Driving Layup (15 PTS) (Daniels 3 AST)
Q3 09:48PHIATL:76 PHI:77Barlow 2' Cutting Layup Shot (4 PTS) (Maxey 4 AST)
Q3 09:31ATLATL:79 PHI:77Alexander-Walker 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Okongwu 3 AST)
Q3 09:10PHIATL:79 PHI:79Oubre Jr. 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (17 PTS)
#4
2026-03-07		LAC @ MEMLAC 123 — MEM 120LAC—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-07		UTA @ MILUTA 99 — MIL 113MILUTA Q3 00:33 (def before:+7 after:+5)🟢 Edge → UTA ❌🟢 Edge → UTA ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 02:30MILMIL:74 UTA:71Green 3PT Running Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Rollins 5 AST)
Q3 01:55UTAMIL:74 UTA:74Harkless 24' 3PT Running Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)
Q3 01:34MILMIL:77 UTA:74Green 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Rollins 6 AST)
Q3 01:14MILMIL:79 UTA:74Sims 1' Running Dunk (6 PTS)
Q3 00:40MILMIL:81 UTA:74Portis 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Green 1 AST)
Q3 00:33UTAMIL:81 UTA:76Hinson 11' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)
Q3 00:14MILMIL:83 UTA:76Portis 9' Turnaround Bank Shot (6 PTS)
Q4 11:37MILMIL:85 UTA:76Portis 16' Turnaround Fadeaway (8 PTS)
Q4 11:20UTAMIL:85 UTA:78Williams 1' Reverse Layup (9 PTS) (Sensabaugh 2 AST)
#6
2026-03-07		GSW @ OKCGSW 97 — OKC 104OKC—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4