🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 8, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

10
Games
3
🔵 Edge (NP)
3/3
🔵 Correct (NP)
3/3 (100%)
🔵 Win Rate
3
🟢 Edge (AT)
3/3
🟢 Correct (AT)
3/3 (100%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-08		BOS @ CLEBOS 109 — CLE 98BOSCLE Q4 10:19 (def before:+16 after:+15)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q4 11:33BOSCLE:71 BOS:88Brown 5' Driving Layup (22 PTS)
Q4 11:33BOSCLE:71 BOS:89Brown Free Throw 1 of 1 (23 PTS)
Q4 11:25CLECLE:74 BOS:89Merrill 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Mitchell 4 AST)
Q4 11:03BOSCLE:74 BOS:91Garza 9' Floating Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Brown 7 AST)
Q4 10:19CLECLE:75 BOS:91Mitchell Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)
Q4 10:19CLECLE:76 BOS:91Mitchell Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q4 09:48CLECLE:78 BOS:91Mobley Cutting Dunk Shot (22 PTS) (Mitchell 5 AST)
Q4 09:10CLECLE:81 BOS:91Mitchell 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (28 PTS)
Q4 08:10BOSCLE:81 BOS:94Scheierman 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Brown 8 AST)
#2
2026-03-08		NYK @ LALNYK 97 — LAL 110LALLAL Q3 04:09 (def before:-9 after:-11)
NYK Q4 10:17 (def before:+23 after:+21)
76-gap: 352.0s apart		🟢 Edge → LAL ✅🟢 Edge → LAL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:08LALLAL:73 NYK:61Hachimura 29' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Smart 4 AST)
Q3 05:09LALLAL:74 NYK:61Doncic Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 04:48NYKLAL:74 NYK:62Diawara Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 04:48NYKLAL:74 NYK:63Diawara Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 04:32NYKLAL:74 NYK:65Hart Running Layup (8 PTS) (Diawara 2 AST)
Q3 04:09LALLAL:76 NYK:65Doncic 2' Driving Layup (22 PTS)
Q3 02:52LALLAL:79 NYK:65Doncic 29' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (LaRavia 2 AST)
Q3 02:15LALLAL:80 NYK:65Hayes Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 02:15LALLAL:81 NYK:65Hayes Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 01:40LALLAL:83 NYK:65Smart 4' Driving Layup (5 PTS) (LaRavia 3 AST)
Q3 00:51LALLAL:85 NYK:65LaRavia 2' Putback Layup (4 PTS)
Q3 00:39NYKLAL:85 NYK:66Clarkson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 00:39NYKLAL:85 NYK:67Clarkson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 00:32LALLAL:88 NYK:67Doncic 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (28 PTS)
Q3 00:10NYKLAL:88 NYK:69Clarkson 5' Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Hart 2 AST)
Q4 11:46LALLAL:91 NYK:69Kennard 27' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Reaves 3 AST)
Q4 11:46LALLAL:92 NYK:69Kennard Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)
Q4 11:29NYKLAL:92 NYK:71Brunson 17' Step Back Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Q4 11:14LALLAL:93 NYK:71LaRavia Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q4 11:14LALLAL:94 NYK:71LaRavia Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q4 10:55NYKLAL:94 NYK:73Towns 5' Driving Dunk (16 PTS)
Q4 10:55NYKLAL:94 NYK:74Towns Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)
Q4 10:33LALLAL:97 NYK:74Reaves 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Q4 10:17NYKLAL:97 NYK:76Brunson 1' Layup (18 PTS)
Q4 09:46NYKLAL:97 NYK:78Brunson 10' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Q4 09:23NYKLAL:97 NYK:81Clarkson 27' 3PT Running Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bridges 3 AST)
Q4 09:02LALLAL:99 NYK:81Kennard 12' Pullup Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Reaves 4 AST)
#3
2026-03-08		DET @ MIADET 110 — MIA 121MIA—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#4
2026-03-08		DAL @ TORDAL 92 — TOR 122TORDAL Q4 08:30 (def before:+27 after:+25)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q4 09:50TORTOR:95 DAL:72Barnes 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Q4 09:31TORTOR:98 DAL:72Barrett 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (29 PTS) (Quickley 7 AST)
Q4 09:28TORTOR:99 DAL:72Barnes Free Throw Technical (17 PTS)
Q4 09:08DALTOR:99 DAL:74Gafford 1' Dunk (19 PTS) (Christie 1 AST)
Q4 08:46TORTOR:101 DAL:74Barrett 1' Reverse Layup (31 PTS) (Poeltl 4 AST)
Q4 08:30DALTOR:101 DAL:76Washington 11' Turnaround Hook Shot (9 PTS)
Q4 08:13DALTOR:101 DAL:78Gafford 1' Running Alley Oop Dunk Shot (21 PTS) (Flagg 6 AST)
Q4 07:01DALTOR:101 DAL:80Bagley III 1' Cutting Layup Shot (6 PTS) (Washington 3 AST)
Q4 06:34TORTOR:104 DAL:80Quickley 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Barnes 5 AST)
#5
2026-03-08		WAS @ NOPWAS 118 — NOP 138NOP—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#6
2026-03-08		ORL @ MILORL 130 — MIL 91ORL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#7
2026-03-08		HOU @ SASHOU 120 — SAS 145SASSAS Q3 10:17 (def before:-16 after:-17)🟢 Edge → SAS ✅🟢 Edge → SAS ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 11:39HOUSAS:69 HOU:59Sengun 5' Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Smith Jr. 1 AST)
Q3 11:03SASSAS:70 HOU:59Vassell Free Throw 2 of 3 (4 PTS)
Q3 11:03SASSAS:71 HOU:59Vassell Free Throw 3 of 3 (5 PTS)
Q3 10:38SASSAS:74 HOU:59Champagnie 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wembanyama 1 AST)
Q3 10:17SASSAS:75 HOU:59Wembanyama Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 10:17SASSAS:76 HOU:59Wembanyama Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 09:45SASSAS:78 HOU:59Champagnie 8' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Castle 3 AST)
Q3 09:23HOUSAS:78 HOU:61Thompson 8' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 09:17SASSAS:79 HOU:61Castle Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)
#8
2026-03-08		IND @ PORIND 111 — POR 131POR—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#9
2026-03-08		CHI @ SACCHI 110 — SAC 126SAC—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#10
2026-03-08		CHA @ PHXCHA 99 — PHX 111PHXPHX Q3 05:13 (def before:-6 after:-9)🟢 Edge → PHX ✅🟢 Edge → PHX ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:01PHXPHX:71 CHA:63Booker 24' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Ighodaro 4 AST)
Q3 06:46CHAPHX:71 CHA:65Ball 8' Driving Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 06:27PHXPHX:72 CHA:65Booker Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)
Q3 06:27PHXPHX:73 CHA:65Booker Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)
Q3 06:05CHAPHX:73 CHA:67Ball 10' Driving Floating Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Knueppel 3 AST)
Q3 05:13PHXPHX:76 CHA:67Dunn 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Green 1 AST)
Q3 04:09CHAPHX:76 CHA:70White 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Ball 5 AST)
Q3 03:16CHAPHX:76 CHA:72Bridges 3' Alley Oop Dunk (12 PTS) (White 2 AST)
Q3 02:31CHAPHX:76 CHA:75Ball 29' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (White 3 AST)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4