🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 9, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

5
Games
2
🔵 Edge (NP)
2/2
🔵 Correct (NP)
2/2 (100%)
🔵 Win Rate
2
🟢 Edge (AT)
2/2
🟢 Correct (AT)
2/2 (100%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-09		PHI @ CLEPHI 101 — CLE 115CLE—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#2
2026-03-09		MEM @ BKNMEM 115 — BKN 126BKNBKN Q3 07:31 (def before:-5 after:-7)
MEM Q3 06:12 (def before:+5 after:+3)
76-gap: 79.0s apart		🟢 Edge → BKN ✅🟢 Edge → BKN ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:09MEMBKN:68 MEM:64Prosper 2' Driving Dunk (13 PTS) (Spencer 5 AST)
Q3 09:16MEMBKN:68 MEM:67Jackson 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Spencer 6 AST)
Q3 08:42BKNBKN:71 MEM:67Wolf 28' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Clowney 3 AST)
Q3 08:03BKNBKN:74 MEM:67Clowney 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Claxton 4 AST)
Q3 07:52MEMBKN:74 MEM:69Small 1' Driving Dunk (2 PTS)
Q3 07:31BKNBKN:76 MEM:69Traore 4' Driving Layup (13 PTS) (Claxton 5 AST)
Q3 07:13MEMBKN:76 MEM:71Wells 11' Step Back Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Jackson 3 AST)
Q3 07:01BKNBKN:79 MEM:71Powell 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Wolf 1 AST)
Q3 06:40MEMBKN:79 MEM:74Small 27' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Spencer 7 AST)
Q3 06:12MEMBKN:79 MEM:76Jackson 2' Reverse Dunk (15 PTS)
Q3 05:58BKNBKN:80 MEM:76Wolf Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 05:01BKNBKN:82 MEM:76Sharpe 4' Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Saraf 4 AST)
Q3 04:31MEMBKN:82 MEM:78Spencer 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wells 1 AST)
#3
2026-03-09		DEN @ OKCDEN 126 — OKC 129OKCOKC Q3 05:44 (def before:+2 after:+0)
DEN Q3 05:56 (def before:+0 after:-2)
76-gap: ⚡ adjacent		⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:14DENOKC:72 DEN:68Jokic Free Throw 1 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 07:14DENOKC:72 DEN:69Jokic Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 06:48DENOKC:72 DEN:72Hardaway Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Jokic 7 AST)
Q3 06:30DENOKC:72 DEN:74S. Jones Tip Dunk Shot (2 PTS)
Q3 06:08OKCOKC:74 DEN:74Wiggins 1' Reverse Layup (3 PTS) (Joe 1 AST)
Q3 05:56DENOKC:74 DEN:76Jokic 5' Turnaround Hook Shot (15 PTS)
Q3 05:44OKCOKC:76 DEN:76Gilgeous-Alexander 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (19 PTS)
Q3 05:22DENOKC:76 DEN:78Murray 11' Driving Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Jokic 8 AST)
Q3 05:06OKCOKC:78 DEN:78Wallace 4' Floating Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST)
Q3 04:46DENOKC:78 DEN:80Jokic 2' Driving Layup (17 PTS)
#4
2026-03-09		GSW @ UTAGSW 116 — UTA 119UTAUTA Q3 04:37 (def before:+1 after:-1)🟢 Edge → UTA ✅🟢 Edge → UTA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:42GSWUTA:69 GSW:72Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Green 9 AST)
Q3 06:23UTAUTA:72 GSW:72George 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Filipowski 5 AST)
Q3 05:47UTAUTA:73 GSW:72George Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 05:47UTAUTA:74 GSW:72George Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 04:57GSWUTA:74 GSW:75Cryer 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Spencer 2 AST)
Q3 04:37UTAUTA:76 GSW:75Sensabaugh 13' Driving Floating Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Love 1 AST)
Q3 04:37UTAUTA:77 GSW:75Sensabaugh Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)
Q3 03:56GSWUTA:77 GSW:77Williams 3' Reverse Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 03:32UTAUTA:80 GSW:77Love 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)
#5
2026-03-09		NYK @ LACNYK 118 — LAC 126LACNYK Q3 02:01 (def before:+11 after:+9)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:56LACLAC:82 NYK:67Lopez 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Leonard 6 AST)
Q3 03:30NYKLAC:82 NYK:70Shamet 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Diawara 2 AST)
Q3 03:21LACLAC:85 NYK:70Mathurin 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (15 PTS)
Q3 02:53NYKLAC:85 NYK:72Diawara 2' Driving Dunk (2 PTS)
Q3 02:36NYKLAC:85 NYK:74Brunson 10' Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (21 PTS)
Q3 02:01NYKLAC:85 NYK:76Brunson 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (23 PTS)
Q3 01:31NYKLAC:85 NYK:78Brunson 8' Driving Floating Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Q3 01:13LACLAC:86 NYK:78Mathurin Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 00:32LACLAC:88 NYK:78Mathurin 1' Putback Layup (18 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-15 11:49 ET · nba_api · Rule v4