🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 12, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

11
Games
8
🔵 Edge (NP)
5/8
🔵 Correct (NP)
5/8 (62%)
🔵 Win Rate
8
🟢 Edge (AT)
5/8
🟢 Correct (AT)
5/8 (62%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-10		MEM @ PHIMEM 129 — PHI 139PHIPHI Q3 07:20 (def before:+9 after:+7)🟢 Edge → PHI ✅🟢 Edge → PHI ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:30MEMPHI:72 MEM:75Jerome 1' Driving Layup (15 PTS)
Q3 09:32MEMPHI:72 MEM:77Prosper 1' Running Reverse Layup (9 PTS) (Coward 1 AST)
Q3 08:40MEMPHI:72 MEM:80Jerome 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Coward 2 AST)
Q3 08:08PHIPHI:74 MEM:80Grimes 4' Running Finger Roll Layup (10 PTS)
Q3 07:47MEMPHI:74 MEM:83Jerome 25' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (21 PTS)
⭐ Q3 07:20PHIPHI:76 MEM:83Oubre Jr. 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (19 PTS)
Q3 06:38PHIPHI:77 MEM:83Barlow Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 06:23MEMPHI:77 MEM:84Spencer Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 06:23MEMPHI:77 MEM:85Spencer Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
#2
2026-03-10		DET @ BKNDET 138 — BKN 100DETBKN Q4 10:31 (def before:+37 after:+34)
DET Q3 09:27 (def before:-28 after:-29)
76-gap: 656.0s apart		🟢 Edge → DET ✅🟢 Edge → DET ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:31DETBKN:40 DET:73Stewart 4' Tip Layup Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 11:25BKNBKN:42 DET:73Powell 6' Driving Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Claxton 3 AST)
Q3 10:45BKNBKN:44 DET:73Porter Jr. 1' Driving Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 10:35DETBKN:44 DET:75Robinson 1' Driving Layup (7 PTS) (Cunningham 8 AST)
Q3 10:18BKNBKN:47 DET:75Clowney 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Claxton 4 AST)
🟩 Q3 09:27DETBKN:47 DET:76Cunningham Free Throw Technical (21 PTS)
Q3 09:08BKNBKN:48 DET:76Clowney Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 09:08BKNBKN:49 DET:76Clowney Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 08:53DETBKN:49 DET:79Sasser 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Cunningham 9 AST)
Q3 08:12DETBKN:49 DET:81Robinson 10' Driving Floating Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Harris 3 AST)
Q3 07:53BKNBKN:52 DET:81Powell 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Traore 1 AST)
Q3 07:40DETBKN:52 DET:82Duren Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 07:40DETBKN:52 DET:83Duren Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 07:12DETBKN:52 DET:86Robinson 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Cunningham 10 AST)
Q3 06:59BKNBKN:55 DET:86Powell 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Traore 2 AST)
Q3 06:36DETBKN:55 DET:88Sasser 3' Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Cunningham 11 AST)
Q3 06:21DETBKN:55 DET:90Duren Running Dunk (19 PTS) (Cunningham 12 AST)
Q3 05:19DETBKN:55 DET:93Sasser 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Cunningham 13 AST)
Q3 04:59BKNBKN:58 DET:93Porter Jr. 24' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Saraf 3 AST)
Q3 04:45DETBKN:58 DET:96Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Cunningham 14 AST)
Q3 04:32DETBKN:58 DET:97Duren Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 04:32DETBKN:58 DET:98Duren Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)
Q3 04:19BKNBKN:61 DET:98Wolf 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Saraf 4 AST)
Q3 03:44DETBKN:61 DET:100Duren 2' Cutting Layup Shot (23 PTS) (Cunningham 15 AST)
Q3 03:32BKNBKN:62 DET:100Wolf Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 03:32BKNBKN:63 DET:100Wolf Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 03:11DETBKN:63 DET:102Duren 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (25 PTS) (Huerter 3 AST)
Q3 02:57BKNBKN:65 DET:102Wilson 5' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Saraf 5 AST)
Q3 02:28DETBKN:65 DET:103Duren Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)
Q3 02:06BKNBKN:66 DET:103Minott Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 02:06BKNBKN:67 DET:103Minott Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 01:43BKNBKN:68 DET:103Wilson Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 01:10BKNBKN:71 DET:103Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Saraf 6 AST)
Q3 00:33DETBKN:71 DET:105Huerter 3' Running Layup (4 PTS) (Jenkins 2 AST)
Q3 00:10BKNBKN:72 DET:105Wolf Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 00:10BKNBKN:73 DET:105Wolf Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
Q4 11:43DETBKN:73 DET:108Holland II 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Huerter 4 AST)
Q4 11:22DETBKN:73 DET:110Holland II 2' Running Layup (11 PTS) (Jenkins 3 AST)
⭐ Q4 10:31BKNBKN:76 DET:110Wolf 27' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Liddell 1 AST)
Q4 09:39DETBKN:76 DET:111Green Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q4 09:18DETBKN:76 DET:113Jenkins 3' Running Layup (10 PTS)
Q4 08:59BKNBKN:79 DET:113Minott 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Liddell 2 AST)
#3
2026-03-10		WAS @ MIAWAS 129 — MIA 150MIAMIA Q2 00:18 (def before:-15 after:-17)
WAS Q3 04:49 (def before:+25 after:+24)
76-gap: 449.8s apart		🟢 Edge → MIA ✅🟢 Edge → MIA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 01:11MIAMIA:70 WAS:57Adebayo Free Throw 1 of 2 (39 PTS)
Q2 01:11MIAMIA:71 WAS:57Adebayo Free Throw 2 of 2 (40 PTS)
Q2 00:54WASMIA:71 WAS:59Coulibaly 4' Cutting Layup Shot (6 PTS) (Sarr 1 AST)
Q2 00:41MIAMIA:73 WAS:59Adebayo 1' Driving Layup (42 PTS) (Mitchell 5 AST)
Q2 00:41MIAMIA:74 WAS:59Adebayo Free Throw 1 of 1 (43 PTS)
⭐ Q2 00:18MIAMIA:76 WAS:59Jakucionis 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (2 PTS)
Q2 00:04WASMIA:76 WAS:62Sarr 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (23 PTS)
Q3 11:16WASMIA:76 WAS:64Sarr 7' Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Riley 1 AST)
Q3 10:51MIAMIA:78 WAS:64Adebayo 1' Driving Dunk (45 PTS) (Jakucionis 4 AST)
Q3 10:14MIAMIA:80 WAS:64Mitchell 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (6 PTS)
Q3 09:35WASMIA:80 WAS:65Coulibaly Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)
Q3 09:26MIAMIA:82 WAS:65Mitchell 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Q3 08:58WASMIA:82 WAS:68Sarr 26' 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (Carrington 5 AST)
Q3 08:49MIAMIA:84 WAS:68Larsson 2' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Jakucionis 5 AST)
Q3 08:49MIAMIA:85 WAS:68Larsson Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)
Q3 08:31WASMIA:85 WAS:70Johnson 14' Step Back Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 08:22MIAMIA:86 WAS:70Mitchell Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 08:22MIAMIA:87 WAS:70Mitchell Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 07:59MIAMIA:88 WAS:70Jakucionis Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 07:48MIAMIA:90 WAS:70Gardner Tip Dunk Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 07:31MIAMIA:92 WAS:70Mitchell 2' Running Reverse Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 07:15WASMIA:92 WAS:73Riley 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 07:06MIAMIA:95 WAS:73Adebayo 3PT Jump Shot (48 PTS) (Jakucionis 6 AST)
Q3 05:49WASMIA:95 WAS:75Johnson 4' Driving Floating Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q3 05:31MIAMIA:96 WAS:75Adebayo Free Throw 1 of 2 (49 PTS)
Q3 05:31MIAMIA:97 WAS:75Adebayo Free Throw 2 of 2 (50 PTS)
Q3 05:03MIAMIA:99 WAS:75Adebayo 1' Running Dunk (52 PTS) (Gardner 2 AST)
Q3 04:49MIAMIA:100 WAS:75Adebayo Free Throw Technical (53 PTS)
🟩 Q3 04:49WASMIA:100 WAS:76Coulibaly Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 04:37MIAMIA:101 WAS:76Adebayo Free Throw 1 of 2 (54 PTS)
Q3 04:37MIAMIA:102 WAS:76Adebayo Free Throw 2 of 2 (55 PTS)
Q3 04:11WASMIA:102 WAS:79Johnson 29' 3PT Running Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Carrington 6 AST)
#4
2026-03-10		DAL @ ATLDAL 112 — ATL 124ATL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-10		TOR @ HOUTOR 99 — HOU 113HOUTOR Q3 01:54 (def before:+7 after:+6)🟢 Edge → TOR ❌🟢 Edge → TOR ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 03:09HOUHOU:77 TOR:72Eason 2' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Finney-Smith 2 AST)
Q3 02:53TORHOU:77 TOR:74Barnes 16' Pullup Jump Shot (18 PTS)
Q3 02:30HOUHOU:79 TOR:74Capela 1' Putback Layup (4 PTS)
Q3 02:02HOUHOU:82 TOR:74Finney-Smith 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Capela 1 AST)
Q3 01:54TORHOU:82 TOR:75Barnes Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)
🟩 Q3 01:54TORHOU:82 TOR:76Barnes Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)
Q3 01:38HOUHOU:84 TOR:76Sheppard 16' Pullup Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Capela 2 AST)
Q3 01:05TORHOU:84 TOR:79Walter 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Shead 2 AST)
Q3 00:51HOUHOU:85 TOR:79Thompson Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
#6
2026-03-10		PHX @ MILPHX 129 — MIL 114PHX—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#7
2026-03-10		BOS @ SASBOS 116 — SAS 125SASBOS Q3 06:55 (def before:+1 after:-1)🟢 Edge → BOS ❌🟢 Edge → BOS ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:49SASSAS:72 BOS:67Vassell 17' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Fox 7 AST)
Q3 08:27BOSSAS:72 BOS:69White 2' Driving Layup (21 PTS)
Q3 08:12SASSAS:75 BOS:69Castle 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Wembanyama 2 AST)
Q3 07:50BOSSAS:75 BOS:71Tatum 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 07:21BOSSAS:75 BOS:74White 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (24 PTS)
🟩 Q3 06:55BOSSAS:75 BOS:76Tatum 2' Driving Finger Roll Layup (14 PTS)
Q3 06:42SASSAS:77 BOS:76Harper 1' Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS)
Q3 05:51SASSAS:80 BOS:76Johnson 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (5 PTS)
Q3 05:21BOSSAS:80 BOS:78White 2' Driving Layup (26 PTS)
#8
2026-03-10		CHI @ GSWCHI 130 — GSW 124CHIGSW Q3 04:16 (def before:+2 after:-1)🟢 Edge → GSW ❌🟢 Edge → GSW ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:42CHIGSW:67 CHI:75Richards 3' Putback Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 05:21GSWGSW:69 CHI:75Cryer 6' Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Porzingis 1 AST)
Q3 05:21GSWGSW:70 CHI:75Cryer Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS)
Q3 04:52GSWGSW:72 CHI:75Porzingis 11' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Spencer 4 AST)
Q3 04:52GSWGSW:73 CHI:75Porzingis Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)
⭐ Q3 04:16GSWGSW:76 CHI:75Cryer 26' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Porzingis 2 AST)
Q3 03:56GSWGSW:79 CHI:75Porzingis 28' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Santos 1 AST)
Q3 03:06CHIGSW:79 CHI:77Buzelis 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (24 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)
Q3 02:53GSWGSW:81 CHI:77Payton II Tip Dunk Shot (8 PTS)
#9
2026-03-10		CHA @ PORCHA 103 — POR 101CHACHA Q3 00:47 (def before:+4 after:+3)🟢 Edge → CHA ✅🟢 Edge → CHA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 01:44CHAPOR:75 CHA:74James Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 01:30PORPOR:77 CHA:74Williams III 4' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Avdija 5 AST)
Q3 01:04PORPOR:78 CHA:74Avdija Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)
Q3 01:04PORPOR:79 CHA:74Avdija Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 00:47CHAPOR:79 CHA:75Miller Free Throw 1 of 2 (18 PTS)
🟩 Q3 00:47CHAPOR:79 CHA:76Miller Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)
Q3 00:09CHAPOR:79 CHA:78Kalkbrenner 1' Dunk (13 PTS) (Knueppel 2 AST)
Q3 00:01PORPOR:82 CHA:78Avdija 30' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Henderson 1 AST)
Q4 11:00PORPOR:84 CHA:78Grant 6' Turnaround Hook Shot (22 PTS)
#10
2026-03-10		IND @ SACIND 109 — SAC 114SACSAC Q4 11:26 (def before:+8 after:+6)🟢 Edge → SAC ✅🟢 Edge → SAC ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 01:33INDSAC:70 IND:81Brown Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 01:33INDSAC:70 IND:82Brown Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 00:00SACSAC:71 IND:82Eubanks Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)
Q3 00:00SACSAC:72 IND:82Eubanks Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q4 11:40SACSAC:74 IND:82Clifford 6' Driving Dunk (6 PTS) (Hayes 3 AST)
⭐ Q4 11:26SACSAC:76 IND:82Carter 3' Tip Layup Shot (4 PTS)
Q4 11:26SACSAC:77 IND:82Carter Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)
Q4 11:03INDSAC:77 IND:84Potter 5' Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Jones 4 AST)
Q4 11:03INDSAC:77 IND:85Potter Free Throw 1 of 1 (11 PTS)
#11
2026-03-10		MIN @ LALMIN 106 — LAL 120LAL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—

Generated 2026-03-12 05:16 ET · nba_api · Rule v4