🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 12, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

6
Games
3
🔵 Edge (NP)
1/3
🔵 Correct (NP)
1/3 (33%)
🔵 Win Rate
3
🟢 Edge (AT)
1/3
🟢 Correct (AT)
1/3 (33%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-11		CLE @ ORLCLE 122 — ORL 128ORLCLE Q3 05:04 (def before:+4 after:+3)🟢 Edge → CLE ❌🟢 Edge → CLE ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:33ORLORL:75 CLE:71Bane 14' Pullup Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Q3 06:46ORLORL:77 CLE:71da Silva 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Carter Jr. 2 AST)
Q3 06:17ORLORL:79 CLE:71Banchero 2' Driving Layup (23 PTS) (Bane 4 AST)
Q3 06:00CLEORL:79 CLE:73Merrill 1' Cutting Layup Shot (11 PTS) (Mobley 2 AST)
Q3 05:04CLEORL:79 CLE:75Bryant 2' Running Layup (4 PTS) (Harden 6 AST)
🟩 Q3 05:04CLEORL:79 CLE:76Bryant Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)
Q3 04:49ORLORL:81 CLE:76da Silva 1' Driving Dunk (14 PTS) (Howard 1 AST)
Q3 04:29CLEORL:81 CLE:79Harden 26' 3PT Jump Shot (24 PTS) (Ellis 1 AST)
Q3 04:04CLEORL:81 CLE:81Ellis 1' Driving Layup (8 PTS)
#2
2026-03-11		TOR @ NOPTOR 111 — NOP 122NOP—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#3
2026-03-11		NYK @ UTANYK 134 — UTA 117NYKUTA Q3 08:53 (def before:-6 after:-8)🟢 Edge → UTA ❌🟢 Edge → UTA ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:05NYKUTA:70 NYK:63Brunson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Anunoby 1 AST)
Q3 09:44UTAUTA:72 NYK:63Williams 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (10 PTS) (Sensabaugh 3 AST)
Q3 09:26NYKUTA:72 NYK:65Towns 4' Driving Layup (17 PTS) (Brunson 3 AST)
Q3 09:18UTAUTA:74 NYK:65Filipowski 4' Hook Bank Shot (10 PTS) (George 5 AST)
Q3 09:06NYKUTA:74 NYK:68Anunoby 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Brunson 4 AST)
⭐ Q3 08:53UTAUTA:76 NYK:68George 3' Cutting Layup Shot (10 PTS) (Filipowski 3 AST)
Q3 08:26UTAUTA:79 NYK:68Bailey 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Sensabaugh 4 AST)
Q3 08:08NYKUTA:79 NYK:69Anunoby Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 08:08NYKUTA:79 NYK:70Anunoby Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
#4
2026-03-11		HOU @ DENHOU 93 — DEN 129DENDEN Q3 05:14 (def before:-13 after:-15)
HOU Q4 09:22 (def before:+27 after:+25)
76-gap: 472.0s apart		🟢 Edge → DEN ✅🟢 Edge → DEN ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:10HOUDEN:70 HOU:61Smith Jr. 9' Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Sheppard 2 AST)
Q3 05:59DENDEN:71 HOU:61Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 05:59DENDEN:72 HOU:61Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 05:39DENDEN:73 HOU:61Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 05:39DENDEN:74 HOU:61Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
⭐ Q3 05:14DENDEN:76 HOU:61Murray 2' Running Layup (20 PTS)
Q3 04:49HOUDEN:76 HOU:63Durant 12' Pullup Jump Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 04:33DENDEN:79 HOU:63Braun 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)
Q3 04:03DENDEN:82 HOU:63Braun 26' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)
Q3 03:30HOUDEN:82 HOU:65Sheppard 4' Running Layup (7 PTS)
Q3 03:18DENDEN:83 HOU:65Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)
Q3 03:18DENDEN:84 HOU:65Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)
Q3 02:50DENDEN:85 HOU:65Brown Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 02:36HOUDEN:85 HOU:67Thompson 5' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q3 02:21DENDEN:87 HOU:67Johnson 10' Pullup Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Jokic 12 AST)
Q3 01:28HOUDEN:87 HOU:69Thompson Putback Dunk (16 PTS)
Q3 00:41DENDEN:88 HOU:69Jokic Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 00:31DENDEN:90 HOU:69Brown 2' Running Dunk (4 PTS) (S. Jones 2 AST)
Q3 00:04DENDEN:93 HOU:69Hardaway Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Jokic 13 AST)
Q4 11:09DENDEN:96 HOU:69Hardaway Jr. 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Brown 2 AST)
Q4 10:52HOUDEN:96 HOU:71Sheppard 8' Driving Finger Roll Layup (9 PTS)
Q4 10:26HOUDEN:96 HOU:73Crawford 1' Running Layup (2 PTS)
Q4 10:10DENDEN:99 HOU:73Murray 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (25 PTS)
Q4 09:55HOUDEN:99 HOU:74Capela Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q4 09:41DENDEN:101 HOU:74Murray 20' Pullup Jump Shot (27 PTS)
🟩 Q4 09:22HOUDEN:101 HOU:76Capela 8' Turnaround Hook Shot (5 PTS)
Q4 09:06DENDEN:104 HOU:76Murray 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (30 PTS)
Q4 08:52HOUDEN:104 HOU:77Crawford Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q4 08:52HOUDEN:104 HOU:78Crawford Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
#5
2026-03-11		CHA @ SACCHA 117 — SAC 109CHA—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#6
2026-03-11		MIN @ LACMIN 128 — LAC 153LACMIN Q3 08:02 (def before:+14 after:+13)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:14MINLAC:85 MIN:74Randle Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 09:00LACLAC:86 MIN:74Leonard Free Throw 1 of 2 (35 PTS)
Q3 09:00LACLAC:87 MIN:74Leonard Free Throw 2 of 2 (36 PTS)
Q3 08:13LACLAC:89 MIN:74Dunn 4' Cutting Dunk Shot (5 PTS) (Garland 6 AST)
Q3 08:02MINLAC:89 MIN:75Gobert Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
🟩 Q3 08:02MINLAC:89 MIN:76Gobert Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 07:39LACLAC:92 MIN:76Garland 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (16 PTS)
Q3 07:13LACLAC:95 MIN:76Leonard 30' 3PT Jump Shot (39 PTS) (Dunn 6 AST)
Q3 06:54MINLAC:95 MIN:78Reid 2' Driving Layup (11 PTS) (Gobert 4 AST)

Generated 2026-03-12 05:18 ET · nba_api · Rule v4