🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 12, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

9
Games
6
🔵 Edge (NP)
5/6
🔵 Correct (NP)
5/6 (83%)
🔵 Win Rate
6
🟢 Edge (AT)
5/6
🟢 Correct (AT)
5/6 (83%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-12		PHI @ DETPHI 109 — DET 131DETDET Q3 09:31 (def before:-11 after:-13)
PHI Q3 03:21 (def before:+23 after:+21)
76-gap: 370.0s apart		🟢 Edge → DET ✅🟢 Edge → DET ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q2 00:00DETDET:69 PHI:60Reed 2' Reverse Layup (4 PTS) (Robinson 3 AST)
Q3 10:52DETDET:71 PHI:60Duren 2' Alley Oop Dunk (7 PTS) (Harris 2 AST)
Q3 10:40PHIDET:71 PHI:63Grimes 27' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 10:27DETDET:73 PHI:63Duren 3' Driving Layup (9 PTS) (Robinson 4 AST)
Q3 10:27DETDET:74 PHI:63Duren Free Throw 1 of 1 (10 PTS)
⭐ Q3 09:31DETDET:76 PHI:63Harris 2' Running Dunk (13 PTS) (Cunningham 10 AST)
Q3 08:57DETDET:78 PHI:63Robinson 4' Running Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 08:38PHIDET:78 PHI:65Beauchamp 1' Driving Layup (12 PTS) (Walker 1 AST)
Q3 08:17DETDET:80 PHI:65Duren 2' Driving Layup (12 PTS)
Q3 07:58PHIDET:80 PHI:67Walker 2' Cutting Layup Shot (9 PTS) (Grimes 3 AST)
Q3 07:15DETDET:83 PHI:67Robinson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Duren 2 AST)
Q3 07:00PHIDET:83 PHI:69Payne 3' Driving Layup (11 PTS)
Q3 06:49DETDET:85 PHI:69Duren 1' Alley Oop Dunk (14 PTS) (Cunningham 11 AST)
Q3 06:20DETDET:88 PHI:69Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Cunningham 12 AST)
Q3 05:36DETDET:90 PHI:69Harris 2' Cutting Layup Shot (15 PTS) (Cunningham 13 AST)
Q3 05:25PHIDET:90 PHI:70Grimes Free Throw 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 05:12DETDET:93 PHI:70Green 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Stewart 3 AST)
Q3 04:56PHIDET:93 PHI:72Payne 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (13 PTS)
Q3 04:25DETDET:94 PHI:72Stewart Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 04:25DETDET:95 PHI:72Stewart Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 03:42PHIDET:95 PHI:74Edwards 1' Putback Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 03:36DETDET:96 PHI:74Green Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)
Q3 03:36DETDET:97 PHI:74Green Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)
🟩 Q3 03:21PHIDET:97 PHI:76Edwards 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 02:51DETDET:98 PHI:76Holland II Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (10 PTS)
Q3 02:51DETDET:99 PHI:76Holland II Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 02:31PHIDET:99 PHI:78Terry 3' Driving Layup (2 PTS)
#2
2026-03-12		PHX @ INDPHX 123 — IND 108PHXIND Q3 05:03 (def before:+6 after:+5)
PHX Q3 09:03 (def before:-7 after:-8)
76-gap: 240.0s apart		🟢 Edge → PHX ✅🟢 Edge → PHX ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 11:06PHXIND:63 PHX:70O'Neale 28' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Gillespie 3 AST)
Q3 10:45PHXIND:63 PHX:73Booker 29' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Ighodaro 3 AST)
Q3 10:04INDIND:66 PHX:73Brown 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Walker 1 AST)
Q3 09:18INDIND:68 PHX:73Huff 5' Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)
Q3 09:03PHXIND:68 PHX:75Green 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (16 PTS)
🟩 Q3 09:03PHXIND:68 PHX:76Green Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS)
Q3 08:40PHXIND:68 PHX:79Booker 27' 3PT Jump Shot (28 PTS) (O'Neale 1 AST)
Q3 06:25INDIND:70 PHX:79Sheppard 2' Driving Layup (5 PTS) (Jones 3 AST)
Q3 06:05INDIND:73 PHX:79Sheppard 28' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jones 4 AST)
Q3 05:44INDIND:75 PHX:79Potter 1' Running Dunk (2 PTS) (Sheppard 1 AST)
Q3 05:21PHXIND:75 PHX:81Ighodaro 3' Driving Layup (6 PTS)
⭐ Q3 05:03INDIND:76 PHX:81Potter Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q3 05:03INDIND:77 PHX:81Potter Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 04:05PHXIND:77 PHX:82Booker Free Throw 1 of 2 (29 PTS)
Q3 04:05PHXIND:77 PHX:83Booker Free Throw 2 of 2 (30 PTS)
#3
2026-03-12		WAS @ ORLWAS 131 — ORL 136ORL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#4
2026-03-12		BKN @ ATLBKN 97 — ATL 108ATLATL Q3 02:08 (def before:+0 after:-2)
BKN Q3 00:30 (def before:+5 after:+4)
76-gap: 97.4s apart		🟢 Edge → ATL ✅🟢 Edge → ATL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 05:51BKNATL:72 BKN:66Clowney 1' Running Dunk (10 PTS) (Saraf 3 AST)
Q3 04:43BKNATL:72 BKN:69Etienne 26' 3PT Running Pull-Up Jump Shot (3 PTS)
Q3 03:58BKNATL:72 BKN:71Mann 10' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)
Q3 03:50ATLATL:74 BKN:71Alexander-Walker 1' Driving Layup (14 PTS) (Johnson 8 AST)
Q3 03:37BKNATL:74 BKN:74Minott 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)
⭐ Q3 02:08ATLATL:76 BKN:74Alexander-Walker Running Layup (16 PTS)
Q3 01:34ATLATL:77 BKN:74Alexander-Walker Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 01:34ATLATL:78 BKN:74Alexander-Walker Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)
Q3 00:49ATLATL:80 BKN:74Landale 2' Dunk (4 PTS) (Kuminga 2 AST)
Q3 00:30BKNATL:80 BKN:75Minott Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
🟩 Q3 00:30BKNATL:80 BKN:76Minott Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 00:09ATLATL:81 BKN:76Risacher Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)
Q3 00:08ATLATL:82 BKN:76Kuminga Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 00:00BKNATL:82 BKN:79Etienne 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)
#5
2026-03-12		MIL @ MIAMIL 105 — MIA 112MIAMIA Q3 04:29 (def before:-10 after:-13)🟢 Edge → MIA ✅🟢 Edge → MIA ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 07:24MILMIA:70 MIL:59G. Antetokounmpo 1' Driving Reverse Layup (24 PTS)
Q3 06:42MILMIA:70 MIL:61Sims 1' Alley Oop Dunk (4 PTS) (Porter Jr. 5 AST)
Q3 05:21MIAMIA:72 MIL:61Smith 1' Running Layup (6 PTS) (Jaquez Jr. 5 AST)
Q3 05:21MIAMIA:73 MIL:61Smith Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)
Q3 04:45MILMIA:73 MIL:63Portis 10' Turnaround Fadeaway (9 PTS) (Sims 2 AST)
⭐ Q3 04:29MIAMIA:76 MIL:63Jakucionis 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Jaquez Jr. 6 AST)
Q3 04:13MILMIA:76 MIL:65Portis 9' Floating Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Green 1 AST)
Q3 03:44MILMIA:76 MIL:67Portis 12' Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Rollins 7 AST)
Q3 03:22MIAMIA:78 MIL:67Larsson 7' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (19 PTS)
#6
2026-03-12		DAL @ MEMDAL 120 — MEM 112DALMEM Q3 03:38 (def before:+10 after:+8)
DAL Q3 07:49 (def before:-7 after:-9)
76-gap: 251.0s apart		🟢 Edge → DAL ✅🟢 Edge → DAL ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 09:26DALMEM:62 DAL:74Christie 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Flagg 5 AST)
Q3 08:48MEMMEM:63 DAL:74Wells Free Throw Technical (17 PTS)
Q3 08:33MEMMEM:64 DAL:74Jackson Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)
Q3 08:33MEMMEM:65 DAL:74Jackson Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)
Q3 08:13MEMMEM:67 DAL:74Prosper 2' Running Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Small 8 AST)
🟩 Q3 07:49DALMEM:67 DAL:76Washington Running Dunk (10 PTS) (Flagg 6 AST)
Q3 06:53MEMMEM:69 DAL:76Mashack 1' Cutting Finger Roll Layup Shot (8 PTS) (Rupert 2 AST)
Q3 05:56MEMMEM:71 DAL:76Rupert 13' Fadeaway Jumper (10 PTS)
Q3 05:46DALMEM:71 DAL:78Christie 2' Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Washington 1 AST)
Q3 05:16DALMEM:71 DAL:80Flagg 1' Running Finger Roll Layup (11 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)
Q3 04:44DALMEM:71 DAL:82Williams 10' Pullup Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Q3 04:27MEMMEM:74 DAL:82Hendricks 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Mashack 3 AST)
Q3 03:58DALMEM:74 DAL:84Bagley III 4' Putback Layup (6 PTS)
⭐ Q3 03:38MEMMEM:76 DAL:84Hendricks Tip Layup Shot (10 PTS)
Q3 03:12MEMMEM:78 DAL:84Jackson Putback Layup (14 PTS)
Q3 02:45MEMMEM:80 DAL:84Hendricks 2' Running Dunk (12 PTS) (Mashack 4 AST)
Q3 02:06MEMMEM:82 DAL:84Jackson 2' Driving Layup (16 PTS)
#7
2026-03-12		DEN @ SASDEN 136 — SAS 131DENSAS Q3 09:01 (def before:-9 after:-12)
DEN Q3 06:07 (def before:+6 after:+5)
76-gap: 174.0s apart		🟢 Edge → SAS ❌🟢 Edge → SAS ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:39DENSAS:71 DEN:59Jokic Free Throw 1 of 1 (20 PTS)
Q3 10:27SASSAS:73 DEN:59Castle 3' Driving Layup (17 PTS)
Q3 09:59DENSAS:73 DEN:60Braun Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)
Q3 09:59DENSAS:73 DEN:61Braun Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)
Q3 09:14DENSAS:73 DEN:64Jokic 25' 3PT Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)
⭐ Q3 09:01SASSAS:76 DEN:64Vassell 27' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Fox 7 AST)
Q3 08:26DENSAS:76 DEN:67Braun 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Murray 4 AST)
Q3 07:58DENSAS:76 DEN:69Johnson 3' Driving Finger Roll Layup (4 PTS) (Jokic 5 AST)
Q3 07:39DENSAS:76 DEN:70Murray Free Throw Technical (13 PTS)
Q3 07:28SASSAS:79 DEN:70Castle 3PT Jump Shot (20 PTS) (Vassell 2 AST)
Q3 07:18DENSAS:79 DEN:71Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)
Q3 07:18DENSAS:79 DEN:72Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)
Q3 06:50DENSAS:79 DEN:74Braun 3' Running Finger Roll Layup (11 PTS) (Jokic 6 AST)
Q3 06:27SASSAS:81 DEN:74Harper 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS)
Q3 06:07DENSAS:81 DEN:75Jokic Free Throw 1 of 2 (24 PTS)
🟩 Q3 06:07DENSAS:81 DEN:76Jokic Free Throw 2 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q3 06:00SASSAS:83 DEN:76Harper 2' Driving Reverse Layup (8 PTS) (Castle 7 AST)
Q3 05:34SASSAS:84 DEN:76Vassell Free Throw 1 of 2 (16 PTS)
Q3 05:34SASSAS:85 DEN:76Vassell Free Throw 2 of 2 (17 PTS)
#8
2026-03-12		BOS @ OKCBOS 102 — OKC 104OKC—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#9
2026-03-12		CHI @ LALCHI 130 — LAL 142LALCHI Q3 05:22 (def before:+21 after:+19)⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:51CHILAL:87 CHI:71Jones 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 06:31LALLAL:90 CHI:71Doncic 26' 3PT Jump Shot (35 PTS) (LaRavia 2 AST)
Q3 06:05LALLAL:93 CHI:71Reaves 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (LaRavia 3 AST)
Q3 05:55CHILAL:93 CHI:74Buzelis 30' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Richards 1 AST)
Q3 05:39LALLAL:95 CHI:74L. James 1' Driving Dunk (9 PTS) (Reaves 6 AST)
🟩 Q3 05:22CHILAL:95 CHI:76Dillingham 4' Driving Layup (7 PTS)
Q3 05:05LALLAL:97 CHI:76L. James 1' Putback Layup (11 PTS)
Q3 04:24CHILAL:97 CHI:79Giddey 29' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)
Q3 03:58CHILAL:97 CHI:81Miller 1' Running Alley Oop Dunk Shot (6 PTS) (Dillingham 4 AST)

Generated 2026-03-12 05:18 ET · nba_api · Rule v4