🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 14, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

8
Games
5
🔵 Edge (NP)
3/5
🔵 Correct (NP)
3/5 (60%)
🔵 Win Rate
5
🟢 Edge (AT)
3/5
🟢 Correct (AT)
3/5 (60%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-13		MEM @ DETMEM 110 — DET 126DET—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#2
2026-03-13		NYK @ INDNYK 101 — IND 92NYKNYK Q3 00:00 (def before:+1 after:-2)🟢 Edge → NYK ✅🟢 Edge → NYK ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 02:04NYKIND:66 NYK:71Shamet 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Brunson 6 AST)
Q3 01:42INDIND:69 NYK:71Walker 26' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (McConnell 6 AST)
Q3 00:43INDIND:71 NYK:71McConnell 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)
Q3 00:31NYKIND:71 NYK:73Brunson 6' Driving Layup (27 PTS)
Q3 00:07INDIND:74 NYK:73Nesmith 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Nembhard 6 AST)
🟩 Q3 00:00NYKIND:74 NYK:76Clarkson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Brunson 7 AST)
Q4 10:57NYKIND:74 NYK:78Anunoby 6' Driving Layup (17 PTS) (Clarkson 2 AST)
Q4 10:57NYKIND:74 NYK:79Anunoby Free Throw 1 of 1 (18 PTS)
Q4 09:55NYKIND:74 NYK:81Clarkson 3' Driving Reverse Layup (8 PTS)
#3
2026-03-13		PHX @ TORPHX 115 — TOR 122TORTOR Q3 04:30 (def before:+6 after:+4)🟢 Edge → TOR ✅🟢 Edge → TOR ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:06PHXTOR:68 PHX:77Green 29' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS) (Gillespie 2 AST)
Q3 05:53PHXTOR:68 PHX:79Ighodaro 1' Hook Shot (5 PTS) (Green 2 AST)
Q3 05:30TORTOR:71 PHX:79Ingram 26' 3PT Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Barrett 3 AST)
Q3 05:13TORTOR:74 PHX:79Ingram 24' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS) (Shead 4 AST)
Q3 04:44PHXTOR:74 PHX:80Booker Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS)
⭐ Q3 04:30TORTOR:76 PHX:80Mamukelashvili Cutting Dunk Shot (7 PTS) (Shead 5 AST)
Q3 04:19PHXTOR:76 PHX:83Fleming 24' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Green 3 AST)
Q3 04:01TORTOR:78 PHX:83Mamukelashvili 1' Cutting Dunk Shot (9 PTS) (Shead 6 AST)
Q3 03:27TORTOR:80 PHX:83Barrett 3' Running Layup (11 PTS) (Ingram 2 AST)
#4
2026-03-13		CLE @ DALCLE 138 — DAL 105CLE—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-13		NOP @ HOUNOP 105 — HOU 107HOUNOP Q4 10:32 (def before:+7 after:+4)🟢 Edge → NOP ❌🟢 Edge → NOP ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 02:31NOPHOU:77 NOP:70Jones 3' Driving Dunk (8 PTS) (Murphy III 6 AST)
Q3 01:33HOUHOU:80 NOP:70Thompson 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Sheppard 3 AST)
Q3 00:57NOPHOU:80 NOP:71Missi Free Throw 1 of 2 (2 PTS)
Q3 00:57NOPHOU:80 NOP:72Missi Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q4 11:04NOPHOU:80 NOP:73Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (23 PTS)
🟩 Q4 10:32NOPHOU:80 NOP:76Murphy III 34' 3PT Running Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Murray 3 AST)
Q4 10:04NOPHOU:80 NOP:78Murray 6' Driving Finger Roll Layup (25 PTS) (Murphy III 7 AST)
Q4 09:47HOUHOU:83 NOP:78Sheppard 27' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Thompson 5 AST)
Q4 09:22NOPHOU:83 NOP:80Matkovic 3' Cutting Layup Shot (2 PTS) (Bey 1 AST)
#6
2026-03-13		MIN @ GSWMIN 127 — GSW 117MIN—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#7
2026-03-13		UTA @ PORUTA 114 — POR 124PORPOR Q3 08:59 (def before:-7 after:-9)🟢 Edge → POR ✅🟢 Edge → POR ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 10:58PORPOR:72 UTA:60Grant 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Camara 2 AST)
Q3 10:41UTAPOR:72 UTA:62Sensabaugh 13' Fadeaway Jumper (19 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)
Q3 10:09PORPOR:74 UTA:62Holiday 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS) (Camara 3 AST)
Q3 09:58UTAPOR:74 UTA:65Harkless 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Collier 6 AST)
Q3 09:11UTAPOR:74 UTA:67Williams 1' Running Dunk (16 PTS) (Filipowski 4 AST)
⭐ Q3 08:59PORPOR:76 UTA:67Cissoko 2' Putback Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 08:18UTAPOR:76 UTA:69Sensabaugh 2' Running Dunk (21 PTS) (Collier 7 AST)
Q3 07:54UTAPOR:76 UTA:72Harkless 25' 3PT Running Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Collier 8 AST)
Q3 07:32PORPOR:78 UTA:72Grant 2' Layup (9 PTS)
#8
2026-03-13		CHI @ LACCHI 108 — LAC 119LACCHI Q3 04:31 (def before:+4 after:+2)🟢 Edge → CHI ❌🟢 Edge → CHI ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:37LACLAC:75 CHI:68Leonard Free Throw 1 of 1 (22 PTS)
Q3 06:18CHILAC:75 CHI:70Giddey 7' Driving Floating Jump Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 05:38CHILAC:75 CHI:72Miller 1' Running Dunk (6 PTS) (Giddey 6 AST)
Q3 05:09LACLAC:78 CHI:72Lopez 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Mathurin 1 AST)
Q3 04:53CHILAC:78 CHI:74Miller 2' Cutting Dunk Shot (8 PTS) (Giddey 7 AST)
🟩 Q3 04:31CHILAC:78 CHI:76Giddey 3' Running Layup (13 PTS)
Q3 04:06CHILAC:78 CHI:79Dillingham 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Giddey 8 AST)
Q3 03:50LACLAC:80 CHI:79Lopez 2' Driving Layup (9 PTS) (Batum 2 AST)
Q3 03:41CHILAC:80 CHI:81Dillingham 23' Pullup Jump Shot (12 PTS)

Generated 2026-03-14 03:00 ET · nba_api · Rule v4