🏀 Kelly NBA 76 — March 15, 2026

A team that hits exactly 76 first holds the edge — unless conditions below apply. Comparing two interpretations of the "both hit 76" rule.

🎯 Kelly Rule (v4 · Updated 2026-03-10)

🟢 Edge — Only one team hit exactly 76; No Edge conditions not met → that team predicted to win

⚪ No Edge — (a) Neither hit 76  |  (b) Both hit 76 (see scenarios)  |  (c) Only the loser hit 76, AND: deficit after > 7

🔵 Scenario A — Next Possession: "Both hit 76" only = No Edge when opponent hits 76 as their very next score after first team

🟢 Scenario B — Any Time: "Both hit 76" = No Edge whenever both teams hit 76 at any point in the game

7
Games
5
🔵 Edge (NP)
2/5
🔵 Correct (NP)
2/5 (40%)
🔵 Win Rate
5
🟢 Edge (AT)
2/5
🟢 Correct (AT)
2/5 (40%)
🟢 Win Rate
# DateMatchupFinalWinnerHit 76 🔵 Next Possession 🟢 Any Time Plays
#1
2026-03-15		MIN @ OKCMIN 103 — OKC 116OKCMIN Q3 00:05 (def before:+7 after:+4)🟢 Edge → MIN ❌🟢 Edge → MIN ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 01:46OKCOKC:73 MIN:73Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 01:32OKCOKC:75 MIN:73Caruso 3' Driving Layup (15 PTS) (Wallace 4 AST)
Q3 01:01OKCOKC:78 MIN:73J. Williams 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Gilgeous-Alexander 9 AST)
Q3 00:26OKCOKC:79 MIN:73Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)
Q3 00:26OKCOKC:80 MIN:73Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)
🟩 Q3 00:05MINOKC:80 MIN:76Dosunmu 24' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Edwards 4 AST)
Q4 11:25OKCOKC:82 MIN:76Mitchell 5' Driving Floating Jump Shot (8 PTS)
Q4 10:46MINOKC:82 MIN:77Reid Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
Q4 10:46MINOKC:82 MIN:78Reid Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
#2
2026-03-15		DAL @ CLEDAL 130 — CLE 120DALCLE Q3 05:23 (def before:+7 after:+6)🟢 Edge → CLE ❌🟢 Edge → CLE ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:50CLECLE:72 DAL:78Ellis 1' Running Dunk (2 PTS) (Schroder 6 AST)
Q3 06:10DALCLE:72 DAL:81Flagg 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)
Q3 05:47CLECLE:74 DAL:81Tomlin 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Mobley 2 AST)
Q3 05:37DALCLE:74 DAL:82Bagley III Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 05:23CLECLE:75 DAL:82Bryant Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)
⭐ Q3 05:23CLECLE:76 DAL:82Bryant Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)
Q3 05:12DALCLE:76 DAL:84Bagley III 1' Alley Oop Dunk (6 PTS) (Marshall 7 AST)
Q3 03:45DALCLE:76 DAL:85Marshall Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)
Q3 03:45DALCLE:76 DAL:86Marshall Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS)
#3
2026-03-15		DET @ TORDET 108 — TOR 119TORTOR Q3 07:17 (def before:-2 after:-4)🟢 Edge → TOR ✅🟢 Edge → TOR ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 08:41TORTOR:69 DET:70Poeltl 1' Running Dunk (13 PTS) (Barnes 5 AST)
Q3 08:41TORTOR:70 DET:70Poeltl Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS)
Q3 08:21DETTOR:70 DET:72Cunningham 17' Fadeaway Jumper (20 PTS)
Q3 08:04TORTOR:72 DET:72Barrett 11' Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Quickley 3 AST)
Q3 07:44TORTOR:74 DET:72Barrett 1' Running Layup (18 PTS) (Quickley 4 AST)
⭐ Q3 07:17TORTOR:76 DET:72Poeltl Tip Layup Shot (16 PTS)
Q3 06:58TORTOR:78 DET:72Ingram 2' Running Finger Roll Layup (19 PTS) (Quickley 5 AST)
Q3 06:07TORTOR:80 DET:72Barnes Tip Layup Shot (9 PTS)
Q3 05:59DETTOR:80 DET:75Cunningham 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (23 PTS)
#4
2026-03-15		IND @ MILIND 123 — MIL 134MIL—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#5
2026-03-15		POR @ PHIPOR 103 — PHI 109PHIPHI Q3 04:06 (def before:-6 after:-8)
POR Q3 01:00 (def before:+6 after:+4)
76-gap: 186.0s apart		🟢 Edge → PHI ✅🟢 Edge → PHI ✅
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 06:01PHIPHI:70 POR:63Edgecombe 12' Driving Floating Jump Shot (12 PTS)
Q3 05:16PHIPHI:72 POR:63Drummond 11' Turnaround Bank Hook Shot (2 PTS) (Barlow 2 AST)
Q3 05:02PORPHI:72 POR:65Henderson 15' Driving Floating Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Clingan 4 AST)
Q3 04:39PHIPHI:74 POR:65Edwards 4' Driving Layup (17 PTS)
Q3 04:22PORPHI:74 POR:68Grant 24' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Camara 4 AST)
⭐ Q3 04:06PHIPHI:76 POR:68Edwards 18' Pullup Jump Shot (19 PTS)
Q3 03:37PHIPHI:78 POR:68Edgecombe 13' Pullup Jump Shot (14 PTS)
Q3 03:24PORPHI:78 POR:71Henderson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Camara 5 AST)
Q3 02:23PHIPHI:80 POR:71Payne 6' Driving Bank Hook Shot (11 PTS)
Q3 01:29PORPHI:80 POR:74Grant 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Thybulle 2 AST)
🟩 Q3 01:00PORPHI:80 POR:76Thybulle 1' Running Dunk (5 PTS)
Q3 00:17PHIPHI:82 POR:76Drummond 10' Driving Floating Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Payne 1 AST)
Q4 11:22PORPHI:82 POR:79Krejci 27' 3PT Running Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Avdija 7 AST)
Q4 10:47PORPHI:82 POR:82Avdija 25' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Clingan 5 AST)
#6
2026-03-15		GSW @ NYKGSW 107 — NYK 110NYK—⚪ No Edge⚪ No Edge—
#7
2026-03-15		UTA @ SACUTA 111 — SAC 116SACUTA Q3 03:06 (def before:+7 after:+6)🟢 Edge → UTA ❌🟢 Edge → UTA ❌
▶ plays
TimeTeamScorePlay
Q3 04:47UTASAC:78 UTA:72Williams 13' Pullup Jump Shot (20 PTS)
Q3 04:31SACSAC:79 UTA:72DeRozan Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)
Q3 04:31SACSAC:80 UTA:72DeRozan Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)
Q3 03:35UTASAC:80 UTA:75Harkless 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Mbeng 2 AST)
Q3 03:16SACSAC:82 UTA:75Raynaud 4' Turnaround Hook Shot (8 PTS) (DeRozan 9 AST)
🟩 Q3 03:06UTASAC:82 UTA:76Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)
Q3 02:27UTASAC:82 UTA:78Tshiebwe 3' Putback Layup (8 PTS)
Q3 01:57SACSAC:84 UTA:78Plowden 10' Turnaround Fadeaway Bank Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Cardwell 1 AST)
Q3 01:50UTASAC:84 UTA:81Hinson 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Tshiebwe 1 AST)

Generated 2026-03-16 14:14 ET · nba_api · Rule v4